• 过去十年，中华人民共和国（中国）经济增长有所放缓，甚至早在新型冠状病毒疫情暴发前就出 现了趋缓迹象。鉴于中国社会快速老龄化、增长对投资持续依赖及国际环境发生改变等因素，一 个关键问题浮出水面：中国国内生产总值（GDP）增长在后疫情时代将恢复到何水平？其长期增 长前景又将如何？

• 据亚洲开发银行估算，2020—2025年间，中国年均潜在GDP增速可达5.3%，随后将逐步降到2036—2040年间的2.0%。资本和全要素生产率是未来经济增长的主要推动力。但劳动年龄人口 规模不断减少将使增长进一步承压，预计人力资本对增长的贡献则相对较小。

According to Asian Development Bank estimates, the PRC’s potential GDP growth could average 5.3% in 2020–2025 before gradually declining to 2.0% in 2036–2040. Capital and total factor productivity (TFP) are the major contributors to future economic growth. Meanwhile, a shrinking working-age population will increasingly weigh on growth, while the contribution of human capital to growth is expected to be comparatively small.

• 为提升潜在增速，本简报提出进行一系列改革。减轻劳动力规模减小带来的影响是应对人口快速 老龄化的关键。相关措施可包括：延迟退休年龄，改进医疗卫生，提高女性劳动参与率，通过放 宽居留许可限制来增加劳动力流动性等。为促进人力资本的形成，需从“质”和“量”两方面改 进教育，特别是农村地区的教育面貌，以缩小城乡教育差距。改革措施应包括：增加受教育年 限，加大农民工子女教育扶助力度，提高劳动者的技能和资质等。
  
  This brief suggests a series of reforms to increase potential growth. To address the rapid demographic aging issue, mitigating the impact of a smaller labor force is key. Measures could include raising the retirement age, improving health care, raising female workforce participation rates, and increasing labor mobility by loosening residence permit restrictions. To boost human capital formation, improving the quantity and quality of education, especially in rural areas, is needed to narrow the urban–rural gap in education. Reform should include increasing years of schooling and supporting the children of migrant workers, as well as improving the skills and qualifications of the workforce.
  
  

• 为改善资本和信贷配置，国有企业（国企）改革势在必行。为此，要明确界定国企范围与职能， 为私营部门营造公平的竞争环境，剥离国企办社会职能，并改善国企管理。除此之外，信贷资源 配置要向私营部门，特别是小微企业倾斜。必须取消对国企的隐性担保，同时增强银行的信用风 险评估能力，提高银行运营效率。为加快从工业向服务业的结构性转变，需加大对服务业和对提 振居民消费的政策扶持力度。

To improve capital and credit allocation, state-owned enterprise (SOE) reforms are needed. This requires clarifying the scope and function of SOEs, leveling the playing field for the private sector, separating social functions from SOEs, and improving SOE management. Moreover, credit allocation needs to be shifted in favor of the private sector, in particular micro and small businesses. The implicit guarantees of SOEs need to be removed, while banks must strengthen their credit risk assessment capabilities and increase their operational efficiency. To accelerate structural change from industry to services, more policy support is needed for the service sector and for boosting household consumption.

• 为便利贸易开放，中国应持续参与和促成国际贸易服务协定，在深耕部分行业的同时为其他一些 行业预留进口空间。为增强中国对外商直接投资流入的吸引力，应缩减外商投资准入负面清单， 降低合资企业设立要求。同时，应提高国家研究与开发工作的有效性，加强创新能力。

To facilitate trade openness, the PRC should continue to engage in and advance international trade and services agreements, and specialize in some industries while allowing room for imports in others. To increase the country’s attractiveness to foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, the negative list for FDI should be shortened and joint venture requirements reduced. Also, the country’s research and development effectiveness should be improved to strengthen innovation capacity.

《观察与建议》是一份中英文双语的系列政策报告，由亚洲开发银行（亚行）东亚局内部和外部专家编写，旨在就优先发展问题向东亚的公务人员和高层决策者提供信息和建议。议题主要由政府提出特别请求或由亚行东亚局发起，针对预期可能出现的政策或改革重点论题进行研究并给出建议。

Observations and Suggestions is an English-Chinese bilingual publication series produced by experts from inside and outside of ADB's East Asia Department. The policy notes are designed to provide information and advice on development issues to East Asia’s civil servants and policymakers. They are produced either on request from the Government or as an initiative of the East Asia Department on topics expected to emerge as policy or reform priorities.