2月17日，经清华大学战略与安全研究中心中国论坛推荐，上海外国语大学国际关系与公共事务学院国际关系研究员、中国论坛特约专家汤蓓应英国对华事务全国委员会（UKNCC）邀请，在其网站“撰稿人计划”栏目发表了题为“从‘动态清零’政策中走出来的中国将面临哪些主要的机遇和挑战？”的评论文章。中国论坛特此翻译，以飨读者。
2022年底，中国的新冠疫情应对实现了“惊险一跃”——大部分管控措施被解除，防疫重点转向预防重症和死亡。奥密克戎变种的迅速传播能力意味着，尽管中国在过去三年中增加了140％的重症监护病床并配备了医疗团队，但医疗系统仍面临巨大压力。在医疗系统更为薄弱的农村地区，这种情况尤为明显。
尽管存在担忧情绪，但在过渡时期，中国社会总体上保持了稳定。“新十条”措施发布后，中国的餐饮业和旅游业在春节期间迅速复苏。大家庭聚会的场景占领了社交媒体，许多人再次开始计划出国旅行。除了仍在外出时佩戴口罩，大多数中国人已经回归正常生活。
事实上，中国已经多次展现面对危机的韧性。2020年，中国是第一个受到疫情冲击的国家，但也是第一个恢复正常并实现经济复苏的国家。再往前追溯，尽管特朗普政府对华发起贸易战，但中国在全球出口贸易中的份额仍在增加。
中国领导人在去年年底举行的中央经济工作会议上提出了“稳字当头，稳中求进”的理念，为2023年的中国经济发展做好准备。理由很容易理解：在一个地缘经济分化日益加剧的混乱世界中，谁能提供稳定，谁就最有可能吸引资金和人才，并将自己打造成全球生产和互动网络中的节点。这个决定对中国来说是极其合乎逻辑的。
中国发展的外部环境在恶化。一方面，全球经济正在经历一个充满挑战的时期。根据国际货币基金组织的预测，2023年全球滞胀风险上升。乌克兰危机的前景仍不明朗，可能使世界粮食和石油供应更加紧张。同时，美国不断在高科技行业对中国“卡脖子”，并试图将中国排挤出全球供应链。
中美关系的恶化产生了涟漪效应。想想中国和英国之间的关系吧。英国前首相戴维·卡梅伦在2015年提出中英关系已进入“黄金时代”，英国还带头加入了由中国倡议的亚洲基础设施投资银行。两国在贸易、金融、研究、技术和跨文化交流方面的合作达到了新的高度。
然而，自2019年以来，英国的对华政策将意识形态和国家安全置于经济和战略利益之上。在中国看来，英国对香港的干涉、对华为技术的反对以及在人权问题上对华施压，更多出于对中国毫无根据的疑惧，而不是出于对正当国家利益的维护。
“做好自己的事。”这句话反映了思维方式的重大变化。自改革开放以来，中国从积极参与经济全球化中获得了巨大利益。但全球化的干扰因素明显增多了，至少暂时如此。由于新冠疫情和乌克兰危机，主要国家现在都更加关注供应链的安全；效率不再是唯一的考量。
首先，中国有稳定的政治体系和明确的发展目标。政府致力于现代化和提高人民的生活水平。中国政府的长期政策规划是其优势之一，特别是能够调节改革步伐、逐步实现目标且不引发社会动荡。
其次，中国重视实体经济，并且拥有一个相对完善的制造业体系。在新冠疫情爆发后，中国政府更加重视对供应链的“强链补链”。
第三，中国庞大的人口意味着它拥有一个相当大的市场。事实上，自2016年以来，外资企业在中国的当地收入一直在增加并超过了出口。这能解释为什么即使美国对华发动贸易战，中国仍然对全球投资者具有吸引力。2022年，中国家庭的储蓄金额增加了26万亿人民币。随着疫情的缓解和经济刺激举措的实施，中国的消费和投资将快速回升。
只要中国继续稳定发展，对华脱钩的策略就不容易实施。在熟练劳动力、基础设施和商业环境方面，中国仍然具有相对于墨西哥、越南和印度等主要制造业替代国的比较优势。
此外，中国可以通过进一步扩大开放，加入《数字经济伙伴关系协定》（DEPA）和《全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》（CPTPP）等国际经贸协定来增加其优势。这意味着，随着时间的推移，那些赞成对华脱钩的人将不得不付出更高昂的代价，这违背了他们维护霸权的初衷。
尽管如此，中国必须提振公众对于稳定发展的信心。这就需要中国不断努力使其政策具有一致性和可预测性，并防止重大风险的出现。
法治是国内政策一致性的重要保障。中国根据《中华人民共和国传染病防治法》对新冠病毒感染实施“乙类乙管”，这保证了封控将不再是中国应对新冠疫情的主要措施。中国还将从制度上和法律上将民营企业的平等地位、外资企业的国民待遇、支持服务业开放等措施落实下来。
尽管风险无法完全预测或避免，但必须在特定范围内加以管理。房地产、金融市场的风险以及地方政府债务问题被特别提及，提前做好准备并保持警惕至关重要。风险管理有时也可能为推动国内改革提供机会。
国际上的挑战也不容小视。由于需要稳定和持续发展，中国必须将其外交政策建立在务实的国家利益基础上，包括确保粮食和能源安全，并营造有利于国内发展的环境。中国的外交将继续致力于促进友好关系，并减少全球秩序中的不确定性。
中美关系仍是热点话题。从积极方面来看，尽管美国的战略将其对华政策定位为竞争，但在危机管理、经济贸易合作和全球治理等领域两国仍存在合作机会。2023年，随着美国中期选举和中国共产党第二十次全国代表大会的结束，中美两国可能会转向一些合作。建立一些对话机制应该说是对中美双边伙伴关系的合理期望。
尽管新冠疫情和逆全球化的双重风暴并未完全消退，但海面看起来平静了许多。中国这艘巨轮船体仍然坚固，这是个好消息。然而，当航速放缓时，船长需要鼓舞船员的士气，并警惕危险的暗流。
What are the main opportunities and challenges for China as it emerges from zero-Covid?
China's approach to the pandemic took an "adventurous leap" at the end of 2022 when it lifted most of the COVID-19 restrictions and the focus shifted to the prevention of serious sickness and death. The capacity of the Omicron variant to spread quickly meant that even though China had raised the number of ICU beds by 140% and equipped medical teams over the past three years, the country's healthcare system still came under great strain. In rural places where the healthcare system is significantly poorer, this was particularly the case.Despite widespread concerns, Chinese society has mostly stayed stable during this transitional time. Following the adoption of the "10 new measures", the catering and tourism industries quickly recovered during the Chinese New Year. Pictures of large family gatherings also quickly took over social media, and many people started making plans to travel abroad once more. The majority of Chinese people have resumed their normal lifestyles, with the exception of continuing the practice of wearing masks when going out.Indeed, China has repeatedly demonstrated its resilience to shocks. In 2020, China was the first to suffer from the pandemic, but also the first to restore normality and achieve economic recovery. Looking further back, China's share of world exports has increased despite efforts by the Trump administration to stifle it through trade restrictions.It is not surprising to learn that Chinese leadership proposed the idea of "prioritising stability and creating progress in the midst of stability" (wenzi dangtou, wenzhong qiujin) during the Central Economic Work Conference held at the end of last year in preparation for China’s economic development in 2023.The justification is straightforward: in a chaotic world with growing geo-economic divisions, whoever can offer stability is most likely to draw resources and talent and establish themselves as nodes in the global network of production and interaction. This decision is extremely logical for China.Worsening global trends impact China
The external environment has become less favourable for China's development. On the one hand, the global economy is going through a challenging time. According to the IMF, global inflation will peak in 2023 amid weak growth. The future of the Ukraine conflict remains unclear, which might make world food and oil supplies even more scarce. Meanwhile, the United States is still making greater attempts to "strangle" China in the high-tech industry and to remove it from the global supply chain.The worsening Sino-US relationship has caused broader reverberations. Consider the ties between China and the UK. Then-prime minister David Cameron called for a "golden age" in Sino-UK relations in 2015 and led the charge for the UK to join the Chinese-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.The two nations' collaboration in trade, finance, research, technology, and intercultural exchanges had reached new heights.However, since 2019, the UK's China policy has prioritised ideological and national security over economic and strategic interests. According to China, the UK's meddling in Hong Kong, disapproval of Huawei's technology, and pressure on China over human rights issues are more motivated by an unfounded fear of China than by legitimate national interests.“Putting our own needs first and doing our best.” (zuohao ziji de shi.) This phrase reflects a significant change in perspective. China has reaped significant benefits from active involvement in economic globalisation ever since its reform and opening-up. Globalisation still exists today, although disruptions have grown, at least temporarily. Major nations are now paying more attention to supply chain security as a result of the epidemic and the conflict in Ukraine; economic efficiency is no longer the sole factor to be taken into account.China's political system and economic foundation give it the capacity to remain stable
First and foremost, China has a stable political system and distinct development objectives. The government is devoted to modernisation and to raising people's standards of living. Long-term policy planning is a strength of the Chinese government, as is the capacity to control the pace of reform and advance gradually toward its objectives without inciting violent confrontations in society.Second, it places value on the growth of the real economy and has a manufacturing system that is reasonably well-established. Following the COVID-19 breakout, the Chinese government has given even higher priority to improving the supply chain and filling gaps.Third, China's enormous population meams it has a sizeable market. In fact, since 2016, local revenues for international businesses in China have increased and surpassed exports. This helps to explain why China still appeals to global investors even after the United States started a trade war with China. The amount of money saved by Chinese households increased by about 26 trillion yuan in 2022. Consumption and investment will pick up steam as the pandemic eases and stimulus initiatives are implemented.The decoupling approach will not be simple to implement for as long as China accomplishes its objective of stable development. China still has advantages over Mexico, Vietnam, and India, which are the primary alternatives for manufacturing locations, in terms of a skilled labour force, infrastructure, and business environment.Additionally, China can broaden its advantages by lifting restrictions on foreign investment and joining international trade and economic agreements like the Digital Economic Partnership Agreement (DEPA) and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). This means that over time, those that favour the path of decoupling will have to pay a higher price, defeating their original intention of retaining power.Having said that, China must increase public confidence in itself by demonstrating its ability to be stable. This calls for ongoing work to make its policy consistent and predictable and to prevent significant risks.To achieve uniformity in policy at home, rule by law will be essential. Lockdowns will no longer be the main response to COVID-19 now that China has decided to manage it with measures against Class-B infectious diseases under the Law on the Prevention and Treatment of Infectious Diseases.Legal and institutional measures will also be taken to protect China's stance of support for the private economy, the nationwide treatment of foreign-funded businesses, and greater liberalisation of the service sector.Risks must be managed within specific bounds though they cannot be completely predicted or avoided. Particular focus has been placed on the risks associated with the housing and financial markets, as well as the problem of local government debt. Making advance preparations and remaining watchful is crucial for China. Risk management might even occasionally present chances to advance domestic reforms.It is important not to undervalue the global challenges. Due to the need for stability and ongoing development, China must base its foreign policy on practical national interests, including maintaining food and energy security and fostering an environment that is conducive to domestic development. China's diplomacy will continue to focus on fostering cordial ties and reducing uncertainty in the global order.The main topic of discussion remains Sino-American ties. Positively, there is still opportunity for collaboration in areas such crisis management, economic and trade cooperation, and global governance even though the US strategy frames its strategy towards China as one of competition. 2023 may see a shift towards some cooperation between the two countries as the US midterm elections and China's 20th National Congress of the CPC have come to a close. A reasonable expectation for the bilateral partnership should be to establish some mechanisms for dialogue.Although the twin storms of the pandemic and counter-globalisation have not totally abated, the future sea appears to be getting a lot calmer. The hull of the enormous Chinese ship is still in decent shape; which is very good news. When the ship’s speed slows, however, the captain must maintain the crew's confidence and be vigilant for any risky undercurrents.Tang Bei is associate professor of International Relations and Director of the Center for Global Governance Studies at the School of International Relations and Public Affairs at Shanghai International Studies University. She is also a China Forum expert.
英文原文2023年2月17日首发于英国对华事务全国委员会(UKNCC)网站“撰稿人计划”栏目