After explosions in late September severely damaged undersea pipelines built to carry natural gas from Russia to Europe, world leaders quickly blamed Moscow for a brazen and dangerous act of sabotage . With winter approaching, it appeared the Kremlin intended to strangle the flow of energy to millions across the continent, an act of “blackmail,” some leaders said, designed to threaten countries into withdrawing their financial and military support for Ukraine.
9月下旬的爆炸严重破坏了从俄罗斯向欧洲输送天然气的海底管道。此后，世界各国领导人迅速指责莫斯科采取了无耻而危险的破坏行为。随着冬季的临近，克里姆林宫似乎打算扼杀流向欧洲大陆数百万人的能源。一些领导人说，这是一种“勒索”行为，旨在威胁各国撤回对乌克兰的财政和军事支持。
But now, after months of investigation, numerous officials privately say that Russia may not be to blame after all for the attack on the Nord Stream pipelines.
但现在，经过几个月的调查，许多官员私下表示，俄罗斯可能毕竟不是北溪管道袭击的罪魁祸首。
“There is no evidence at this point that Russia was behind the sabotage,” said one European official, echoing the assessment of 23 diplomatic and intelligence officials in nine countries interviewed in recent weeks.
一名欧洲官员表示：“目前没有证据表明俄罗斯是这次破坏活动的幕后黑手。”这与最近几周接受采访的9个国家的23名外交和情报官员的评估相呼应。
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukraine is “alive and kicking” in his address to a joint meeting of Congress on Dec. 21. (Video: The Washington Post, Photo: Bill O'Leary/The Washington Post)
乌克兰总统泽伦斯基在12月21日的国会联席会议上发表讲话时说，乌克兰还活着。（视频：《华盛顿邮报》，照片：比尔·奥利里/《华盛顿邮报》）
Some went so far as to say they didn’t think Russia was responsible. Others who still consider Russia a prime suspect said positively attributing the attack — to any country — may be impossible.
一些人甚至表示，他们认为俄罗斯没有责任。其他仍然认为俄罗斯是主要嫌疑人的人表示，肯定地将袭击归咎于任何国家可能是不可能的。
In the months after the explosions, which resulted in what was probably one of the largest-ever single releases of methane gas, investigators have combed through debris and analyzed explosives residue recovered from the bed of the Baltic Sea. Seismologists have pinpointed the timing of three explosions on Sept. 26, which caused four leaks on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines.
爆炸可能是有史以来最大的一次甲烷气体泄漏。爆炸发生后的几个月里，调查人员对碎片进行了梳理，并分析了从波罗的海海底回收的爆炸物残留物。地震学家已经确定了9月26日发生三起爆炸的时间，这三起爆炸导致北溪1号和2号管道四次泄漏。
No one doubts that the damage was deliberate. An official with the German government, which is conducting its own investigation, said explosives appear to have been placed on the outside of the structures.
没有人怀疑破坏是故意的。德国政府的一名官员正在进行自己的调查，他说爆炸物似乎被放置在建筑物的外面。
But even those with inside knowledge of the forensic details don’t conclusively tie Russia to the attack, officials said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to share information about the progress of the investigation, some of which is based on classified intelligence.
但官员们说，即使是那些对细节有内部了解的人，也没有最终将俄罗斯与袭击联系起来，他们不愿透露姓名，以分享调查进展的信息，其中一些是基于机密情报。
“Forensics on an investigation like this are going to be exceedingly difficult,” said a senior U.S. State Department official.
“像这样的调查取证将非常困难，”美国国务院一名高级官员说。
The United States routinely intercepts the communications of Russian officials and military forces, a clandestine intelligence effort that helped accurately forecast Moscow’s February invasion of Ukraine. But so far, analysts have not heard or read statements from the Russian side taking credit or suggesting that they’re trying to cover up their involvement, officials said.
美国经常截获俄罗斯官员和军队的通信。这是一项秘密情报工作，有助于准确预测莫斯科2月入侵乌克兰的行动。但官员们说，到目前为止，分析人士还没有听到或读到俄罗斯方面的声明，这些声明声称他们试图掩盖自己的参与。
Attributing the attack has been challenging from the start. The first explosion occurred in the middle of the night to the southeast of the Danish island of Bornholm. Scientists detected two additional explosions more than 12 hours later to the northeast of the island.
从一开始就很难确定这次袭击的原因。第一次爆炸发生在半夜，地点在丹麦博恩霍尔姆岛的东南部。12个多小时后，科学家在该岛东北部又发现了两次爆炸。
Given the relatively shallow depth of the damaged pipelines — approximately 80 yards at the site of one explosion — a number of different actors could theoretically have pulled off the attack, possibly with the use of submersible drones or with the aid of surface ships, officials said. The list of suspects isn’t limited only to countries that possess manned submarines or deep-sea demolitions expertise.
官员们表示，考虑到受损管道的深度相对较浅——在一次爆炸发生的地方大约有80码——从理论上讲，许多不同的行为者可能已经完成了攻击，可能是使用潜水器或在水面舰艇的帮助下。嫌疑人名单不仅限于拥有载人潜艇或深海拆除专业知识的国家。
The leaks occurred in the exclusive economic zones of Sweden and Denmark. European nations have been attempting to map which ships were in the region in the days before the explosions, in the hope of winnowing the field of suspects.
泄漏事件发生在瑞典和丹麦的专属经济区。欧洲国家一直试图绘制出爆炸前几天哪些船只在该地区的地图，希望能筛选出嫌疑人。
“We know that this amount of explosives has to be a state-level actor,” Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto said in an interview this month. “It’s not just a single fisherman who decides to put the bomb there. It’s very professional.”
芬兰外交部长佩卡·哈维斯托本月接受采访时说，“我们知道，这么多炸药必须是国家一级的行为者。决定在那里放置炸弹的不仅仅是一个渔民。这是非常专业的。”
Regardless of the perpetrator, Haavisto said that for Finland, which isn’t a Nord Stream client, “The lesson learned is that it shows how vulnerable our energy network, our undersea cables, internet … are for all kinds of terrorists.”
不管肇事者是谁，哈维斯托说，对于不是北溪客户的芬兰来说，吸取的教训是，它表明我们的能源网络、海底电缆、互联网是多么脆弱…
Russia remains a key suspect, however, partly because of its recent history of bombing civilian infrastructure in Ukraine and propensity for unconventional warfare. It’s not such a leap to think that the Kremlin would attack Nord Stream, perhaps to undermine NATO resolve and peel off allies that depend on Russian energy sources, officials said.
然而，俄罗斯仍然是一个关键的嫌疑人，部分原因是其最近轰炸乌克兰民用基础设施的历史以及非常规战争的倾向。官员们说，认为克里姆林宫会袭击北溪，也许是为了破坏北约的决心，剥离依赖俄罗斯能源的盟友，这并不是一个飞跃。
But a handful of officials expressed regret that so many world leaders pointed the finger at Moscow without considering other countries, as well as extremist groups, that might have the capability and the motive to conduct the attack.
但部分官员表示遗憾的是，如此多的世界领导人将矛头指向莫斯科，而不考虑可能有能力和动机进行袭击的其他国家以及极端组织。
“The governments that waited to comment before drawing conclusions played this right,” said one European official.
一位欧洲官员表示：“在得出结论之前等待发表评论的政府是正确的。”
Condemnation of Moscow was swift and widespread. On Sept. 30, four days after the explosions, U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm told the BBC it “seems” Russia was to blame. “It is highly unlikely that these incidents are coincidence,” she said.
对莫斯科的谴责迅速而广泛。9月30日，也就是爆炸发生四天后，美国能源部长詹妮弗·格兰霍尔姆告诉BBC，俄罗斯似乎是罪魁祸首。她说，这些事件极不可能是巧合。
German Economy Minister Robert Habeck also implied that Russia, which has consistently denied responsibility, was responsible for the explosions. “Russia saying ‘It wasn’t us’ is like saying ‘I’m not the thief,’” Habeck told reporters in early October.
德国经济部长罗伯特·哈贝克也暗示，俄罗斯一直否认对爆炸负责。哈贝克在10月初对记者说：俄罗斯说'不是我们'就像说'我不是小偷'。
An adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called the ruptures “a terrorist attack planned by Russia and an act of aggression toward [the European Union].”
乌克兰总统沃洛季米尔·泽伦斯基的一名顾问称这次破裂是俄罗斯策划的恐怖袭击，是对[欧盟的侵略行为。
“No one on the European side of the ocean is thinking this is anything other than Russian sabotage,” a senior European environmental official told The Washington Post in September.
“欧洲一边的海洋没有人认为这不是俄罗斯的破坏，”一位欧洲高级环境官员在9月份告诉华盛顿邮报。
But as the investigation drags on, skeptics point out that Moscow had little to gain from damaging pipelines that fed Western Europe natural gas from Russia and generated billions of dollars in annual revenue. The Nord Stream projects had stirred controversy and debate for years because they yoked Germany and other European countries to Russian energy sources.
但随着调查的拖延，怀疑论者指出，俄罗斯从俄罗斯输送西欧天然气的管道遭到破坏，对俄罗斯没有什么好处。这些管道每年产生数十亿美元的收入。北溪项目多年来一直引发争议和辩论，因为它们将德国和其他欧洲国家与俄罗斯的能源联系在一起。
“The rationale that it was Russia [that attacked the pipelines] never made sense to me,” said one Western European official.
一名西欧官员表示：“俄罗斯（袭击管道）的理由对我来说从来没有意义。”
Nearly a month before the rupture, the Russian energy giant Gazprom stopped flows on Nord Stream 1, hours after the Group of Seven industrialized nations announced a forthcoming price cap on Russian oil, a move intended to put a dent in the Kremlin’s treasury. During Putin’s long stretch in office, the Kremlin has used energy as an instrument of political and economic leverage, employing the threat of cutoffs to bully countries into going along with its goals, officials said. It didn’t make sense that Russia would abandon that leverage.
在破裂前近一个月，俄罗斯能源巨头俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司停止了北溪1号的流动，几小时前，七大工业国宣布即将对俄罗斯石油实施价格上限，此举旨在削弱克里姆林宫的财政。官员们说，在普京长期执政期间，克里姆林宫将能源作为政治和经济杠杆的工具，利用切断的威胁来胁迫各国遵守其目标。俄罗斯放弃这种杠杆是没有道理的。
Germany had halted final authorization of Nord Stream 2 just days before Russian forces invaded Ukraine. But the pipeline was intact and had already been pumped full with 300 million cubic meters of natural gas to ready it for operations.
就在俄罗斯军队入侵乌克兰的几天前，德国停止了北溪2号管道的最终授权。但管道完好无损，已经充满了3亿立方米的天然气，为运营做好了准备。
European and U.S. officials who continue to believe that Russia is the most likely culprit say it had at least one plausible motive: Attacking Nord Stream 1 and 2, which weren’t generating any revenue to fill Russian coffers, demonstrated that pipelines, cables and other undersea infrastructure were vulnerable and that the countries that supported Ukraine risked paying a terrible price.
仍然认为俄罗斯是最有可能的罪魁祸首的欧洲和美国官员表示，它至少有一个合理的动机：袭击北溪1号和2号没有产生任何收入来填补俄罗斯的金库，这表明管道、电缆和其他海底基础设施很脆弱，支持乌克兰的国家有可能付出可怕的代价。
Haavisto noted that Finland has taken steps to strengthen infrastructure security since the explosions. Germany and Norway have asked NATO to coordinate efforts to protect critical infrastructure such as communication lines in the North Sea and gas infrastructure.
哈维斯托指出，自爆炸发生以来，芬兰已采取措施加强基础设施安全。德国和挪威已要求北约协调努力，保护北海通信线路和天然气基础设施等关键基础设施。
“But it’s at the same time true that we cannot control all the pipelines, all the cables, all the time, 24/7,” Haavisto said. “You have to be prepared. If something happens you have to think, where are the alternatives?”
“但与此同时，我们无法全天候控制所有的管道、所有的电缆，”哈维斯托说，“你必须做好准备。如果发生了什么事情，你必须思考，替代方案在哪里？”
The war prompted European countries to build up stockpiles of alternative energy, making them less dependent on Russian sources. But the Nord Stream attack has left many governments uneasy about the lengths to which Russia or other actors might go.
这场战争促使欧洲国家建立了替代能源储备，减少了对俄罗斯能源的依赖。但北溪袭击让许多政府对俄罗斯或其他行为者可能会走多远感到不安。
Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billstrom said his government was waiting for the country’s independent prosecutor’s office to complete its investigation into the explosions before reaching a conclusion. Sweden, along with Denmark, increased its naval patrols right after the attack.
瑞典外交部长托比亚斯·比尔斯特罗姆说，瑞典政府正在等待该国独立检察官办公室完成对爆炸事件的调查，然后才能得出结论。袭击发生后，瑞典与丹麦一起增加了海军巡逻。
“We have spoken about [the explosions] as part of the view that the security situation in the northern part of Europe has deteriorated following Russia’s aggression on Ukraine, with all the implications that it has,” Billstrom said in an interview this month.
比尔斯特罗姆本月在接受采访时表示：“我们谈论（爆炸事件）是一种观点的一部分，即在俄罗斯侵略乌克兰之后，欧洲北部的安全局势已经恶化，并产生了所有影响。”
The prospect that the explosions may never be definitively attributed is unsettling for nations like Norway, which has 9,000 kilometers (5,500 miles) of undersea gas pipelines to Europe.
对于像挪威这样的国家来说，爆炸可能永远不会被明确归因的前景令人不安，挪威拥有通往欧洲的9000公里（5500英里）海底天然气管道。
A Norwegian official said Norway is attempting to strengthen security around its own pipelines and broader critical infrastructure. It is investing in surveillance; working with Britain, France and Germany to intensify naval patrols; and trying to find ways to keep oil and gas flowing in the event of another attack.
一名挪威官员表示，挪威正试图加强其管道和更广泛的关键基础设施周围的安全。它正在投资于监视；与英国、法国和德国合作，加强海军巡逻；并试图找到在再次发生袭击时保持石油和天然气流动的方法。
Norway is also investigating the appearance of unidentified aerial drones around its oil and gas facilities around the time of the Nord Stream attacks.
挪威还在调查北溪袭击发生时其石油和天然气设施周围出现的身份不明的空中无人机。
“It’s not a good thing,” the official said, of the possibility that the Nord Stream explosions may remain unsolved. “Whoever did it may get away with it.”
“这不是一件好事，”这名官员说，“不管是谁干的，都有可能逍遥法外。”他指的是北溪爆炸案仍未解决的可能性。
Souad Mekhennet and Meg Kelly contributed to this report.
Souad Mekhennet和Meg Kelly为本报告做出了贡献。