China Electronics
4D毫米波雷达：平衡成本&性能的标配传感器，自动驾驶再添新翼
4D mm-wave radar: the standard sensor solution for better cost-to-performance that could advance self-driving
投资要点/Investment Thesis
投资要点/Investment Thesis
事件：特斯拉HW4.0或将配备Arbe的4D毫米波雷达，4D毫米波雷达关注度上升。
1、行业催化：Tesla或将重启毫米波雷达，国内外车企&Tier1布局加速
回溯Tesla的传感器方案，主要经历了“多传感器融合”、“纯视觉”和“4D毫米波雷达+视觉”3个阶段，我们认为最终采用4D毫米波雷达的原因为4D毫米波雷达拥有测量俯仰角能力，分辨率高且成本相对激光雷达低，能够较好弥补纯视觉方案的不足，而一开始采用的雷达还不具备测高能力，性能&成本综合考量下，我们认为HW4.0使用摄像头+4D毫米波雷达融合为更优方案。除Tesla外，国内外车企宝马、通用、长安等均对4D毫米波雷达有所布局，部分车型已实现交付，部分在2023年有交付规划。
Industry catalyst and rising profile: Tesla might bring back imaging radar
Tesla’s self-driving sensor solutions have gone through three main phases of development: (1) the fusion of multiple sensors; (2) pure vision; and (3) 4D mm-wave radar plus vision. It could finally adopt the imaging radar for its advantages of pitch angle ability, high resolution and lower cost than lidar, which mitigate the shortcomings of a pure vision solution. An earlier radar used by Tesla could not process height. Weighing overall performance and cost considerations, we believe a better solution for HW4 is the fusion of cameras and 4D mm-wave radar. Aside from Tesla, proponents of 4D mm-wave radar include Chinese and foreign car companies like BMW, GM and Changan; some have made deliveries while others plan to do so in 2023.
2、4D毫米波雷达：性能全面提升，超大阵列+专用处理器为量产优解
“4D”是指对探测物体距离、方位、速度和高度全面解析，且具备超高分辨率。实现4D成像主要有级联、单芯片集成和算法虚拟孔径三种技术路线。当前级联技术应用相对广泛。Arbe的4D毫米波雷达集成超大阵列射频芯片组+专用处理芯片，通道数达2304，量产价格为100-150美金，为当前性价比最高的方案，Tesla或采用Arbe方案，我们认为未来4D毫米波雷达将受益工艺集成化趋势，成本持续下降，预计2023、2025、2030年降幅分别达20%、12%、2%，在各类车型中持续渗透。毫米波雷达下游应用场景多元，预计2025年自动驾驶及非自动驾驶领域应用市场空间将分别达110亿美元和170亿美元。
4D mm-wave radar is the optimal solution for mass production: wide-spectrum performance improvements; ultra-large arrays and dedicated processors
4D refers to the comprehensive analysis of distance, orientation, speed and height of a detected object with ultra-high resolution. The three main tech routes to 4D imaging are: (1) cascading; (2) single-chip integration and (3) algorithmic virtual aperture. Cascading technology is the mostly widely used currently. Arbe’s 4D mm-wave radar, which integrates a large array of RF chipsets and dedicated processing chips to offer 2,304 virtual channels, has a mass production price range of USD100-150, currently the most cost-effective solution. We think Tesla might adopt the Arbe solution. 4D mm-wave radar would benefit from the trend of process integration in the future as its cost continues to decline. We estimate a cost decline trend of 20/12/2% in 2023/25/30E as it is deployed in various types of vehicles. The downstream application scenarios are diverse. We project the application market for autonomous driving and non-autonomous driving could reach USD11bn and USD17bn in 2025E, respectively.
3、应用优势：自动驾驶标配的传感器方案，软件定义汽车再进一步
我们认为4D毫米波雷达是最经济、稳定的车载雷达“标配方案”，有望对传统毫米波雷达、低线激光雷达形成替代，与高线激光雷达形成互补，后续或将在各类车型中持续放量。与传统产品相比，4D毫米波雷达突破了静止识别、横向移动检测、高度识别、相邻物区分和隐藏车辆探测等局限。与激光雷达相比，4D毫米波雷达部分性能指标已与其接近，还能更好弥补激光雷达速度、距离测量能力和受恶劣天气和环境影响的不足，但成本仅为其十分之一。软件定义汽车方面，4D毫米波雷达可提供更丰富数据和可靠方案以支持自动驾驶。
Application advantages: standard self-driving solution for software-defined cars
We believe 4D mm-wave radar is the most economical and stable standard solution for in-vehicle radar. We believe it could replace the traditional mm-wave radar and low-performance lidar, while complementing high-performance lidar. It could see more frequent usage in certain models. Compared to traditional solutions, 4D mm-wave radar solves limitations in static identification, lateral movement detection, height identification, adjacent object discrimination and hidden vehicle detection. Compared to lidar, 4D mm-wave radar has several performance indicators that come close, while overcoming making lidar’s shortfalls in speed and distance detection, as well as adverse weather and environmental factors. Yet, its cost is only one-tenth of lidar’s. When it comes to software-defined vehicles, we believe 4D mm-wave radar provides richer data and more reliable solutions in the support of autonomous driving.
4、产业链情况&空间测算：产业链价值有望全面提升，30年全球4D产品规模超160亿美元
毫米波雷达产业链主要分为上游射频MMIC芯片、高频PCB、处理芯片以及后端算法等相关企业，中游包括成品4D毫米波雷达的生产企业，下游则为主机厂。从上游价值量来看，软件算法壁垒较高占比达50%，其次则分别为射频芯片、处理器芯片和高频PCB。伴随4D产品渗透，整个产业链价值有望全面提升。据我们测算，2023/2025/2030年全球车载4D毫米波雷达市场规模分别达31762/159300/1615627万美元，即3.18/15.93/161.56亿美元。
Total spectrum value chain growth; global 4D radar market of USD16bn in 2030E
The mm-wave radar value chain includes:
•Upstream: RF MMIC chips, high-frequency PCBs, processing chips, back-end algorithms
•Midstream: finished 4D mm-wave radar manufacturers
•Downstream: OEMs.
In the upstream market, software algorithm barriers account for 50% of the total market, followed by radio frequency chips, processor chips and high-frequency PCBs. With the increasing penetration of 4D products, the value of the entire industry chain could rise. Our estimates project a global automotive 4D mm-wave radar market of USD318m/ 1.59bn/16.16bn in 2023/25/30E.
5、竞争格局：4D技术推动下市场竞争格局或迎来重塑
整机供应商方面，传统Tier1普遍采用级联技术在4D产品量产方面走在前列，但新进入厂商或依托专用芯片组和虚拟孔径方案实现换道超车，如Arbe、Mobileye等产品通道数具备较强竞争力。国内厂商多已发布4D毫米波雷达样机并与国内车企达成合作。主要整机厂商包括经纬恒润，威孚高科，华为，楚航科技，联合光电等。上游芯片方面，上游芯片主要包括射频芯片和处理器，也可能是将二者集成的专用芯片，主要企业包括德州仪器、赛灵思、恩智浦等，伴随4D算力诉求提升，逐渐分化出FPGA、DSP两大方案。国内方面，加特兰是CMOS工艺毫米波雷达芯片开发与设计的领导者。上游PCB方面，主要企业包括Rogers、Isola、松下以及国内的沪电股份、生益科技（生益电子）等。
4D imaging technology could transform competitive dynamics in entire industry
Among whole-system suppliers, traditional tier-1 manufacturers generally adopt cascade technology and lead in the mass production of 4D products, while newer entrants might rely on dedicated chipsets and virtual aperture solutions to enable lane-changing and overtaking. Products by Arbe and Mobileye are highly competitive for offering multiple channels. Many Chinese manufacturers have released 4D mm-wave radar prototypes in cooperation with Chinese automakers. Major whole-system producers include Jingwei Hirain, Weifu High-tech, Huawei, Chuhang Technology and United Optech. Upstream chips mainly comprise RF chips and processors, and also dedicated chips that integrate the two solutions. Major companies in this segment are Texas Instruments, Xilinx and NXP. As 4D computing power demand increases, the solutions have evolved into two major ones: FPGA and DSP. China’s Calterah leads in the development and design of mm-wave radar chips with CMOS technology. In upstream PCBs, major players include Rogers, Isola, Panasonic, as well as domestic names like WUS Printed Circuit and Shengyi Technology (Shengyi Electronics).
投资建议/Investment Ideas
投资建议：
建议关注4D毫米波雷达相关企业：（1）芯片封装：长电科技等（2）PCB：沪电股份(天风通信团队联合覆盖)、生益电子、世运电路等（3）天线：硕贝德等（4）整机：威孚高科、经纬恒润(天风汽车团队联合覆盖)、华域汽车、保隆科技(天风汽车团队联合覆盖)、联合光电等
Stock ideas (names in bullet points)
We suggest that investors monitor these 4D mm-wave radar players:
•Chip packaging: JCET Group (600584 CH, BUY)
•PCBs: WUS Printed Circuit (Kunshan) (002463 CH, ACCUMULATE) (joint coverage with the communications desk), Shengyi Electronics (688183 CH, BUY)
•Whole-system producers: Weifu High-Technology Group (000581 CH, BUY), Beijing Jingwei Hirain Technologies (688326 CH, BUY) (joint coverage with the autos desk), Huayu Automotive Systems (600741 CH, BUY), Shanghai Baolong Automotive (603197 CH, BUY) (joint coverage with the autos desk).
Not-rated market players
Olympic Circuit Technology (603920 CH), Huizhou Speed Wireless Technology (300322 CH), Union Optech (300691 CH).
风险提示：新技术量产不及预期、市场竞争加剧、新能源车渗透率不及预期
Risks include: lower mass production of new technologies than expected; intensifying competition; and lower-than-expected NEV penetration.
Email: equity@tfisec.com
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