公司22年业绩受到疫情冲击，我们预计公司22年营业收入为22.0亿元，预计净利润为0.98亿元，经调整净利润2.63亿元。

2022年电影市场由于疫情影响票房下降明显，全国票房（含服务费）299.4亿元，21年全国票房为470.3亿元。在电影行业整体面临困难的情况下，公司业务也相应受到影响。我们预计公司22年营收22.0亿元，同比下降33.8%，净利润0.98亿元，同比下降73.3%，经调整净利润2.63亿元，同比下降51.3%。

Pandemic impact dragged 2022E revenue by 34% yoy and net profit by 73% yoy

Moviegoing: pandemic surges hurt China’s film industry in 2022, when box-office takings (including service fees) plummeted to RMB29.94bn from RMB47.03bn in 2021. As part of the troubled film market, Maoyan’s business was not spared. We are expecting its 2022E revenue to arrive at RMB2.20bn, down 33.8% yoy, with net profit at RMB98m, down 73.3% yoy; bringing adjusted net profit to RMB263m, down 51.3% yoy.

其中，在线娱乐票务业务与票房相关性较大，我们预计22年该业务营收10.1亿元，同比下降41%；娱乐内容服务业务我们预计保持相对良好表现，22年参与影片《这个杀手不太冷静》《独行月球》等取得优秀票房成绩，预计公司22年娱乐内容服务收入10.9亿元，同比下降19.6%；预计广告及其他业务营收1.0亿元。

Online: Maoyan’s online entertainment ticketing business typically correlates with its box-office trend. We are expecting this business to post revenue of RMB1.01bn in 2022E, falling 41% yoy. However, its entertainment content services should have been less affected by pandemic factors. Movie releases in 2022, such as Too Cool to Kill and Moon Man, performed well at the box office, so we are expecting relatively benign revenue from its entertainment content services at RMB1.09bn in 2022E, down 19.6% yoy; with advertising and other businesses at RMB100m. 

渠道续签落地，继续合作腾讯、美团入口，市场担忧因素消除。

公司于23年2月公告与腾讯签订腾讯营销推广框架协议，与美团签订战略合作框架协议。其中，与腾讯协议期限为2023年2月14日-2024年12月31日，腾讯为猫眼提供流量支持及配套技术服务，猫眼需支付的年度服务费上限分别为1.1亿元、1.5亿元；与美团续签战略合作框架协议，猫眼将继续通过美团渠道导航位经营猫眼服务，期限截至2025年12月31日，并支付合理的交易对价。与腾讯、美团的续签落地，使得猫眼继续获得重要互联网平台的导流，有助于票务业务的开展，同时也解除了市场对于协议到期的流量入口变化及成本增加幅度不确定性的担忧。

Channel stability: renewed Tencent and Meituan ties calmed market concerns

Maoyan announced in February 2023 it had signed framework agreements with Tencent on marketing and promotions, and with Meituan on strategic cooperation. Maoyan continues to have access to user traffic from key internet platforms, which helps grow its ticketing business. The contract renewals eased market concerns over business uncertainties related to its online access portals and cost ratios in the event of agreement expiry. Here are some details on the agreements:

•Tencent continues to provide user traffic and technical service support to Maoyan under the terms of this agreement, which covers the period from 14 Feb 2023 to 31 Dec 2024. Maoyan’s service fees under the two categories of support are capped at RMB110m and RMB150m p.a. respectively. 

•Meituan continues to operate Maoyan’s services via Meituan’s online channel navigation until 31 Dec 2025 for a “reasonable consideration”. 

23年内容行业回暖，电影市场复苏，公司业绩及估值有望迎来回升。

23年电影春节档迎来开门红，票房67.58亿元，优质国产片带动观影热潮；同时《黑豹2》《蚁人与黄蜂女》等进口片也陆续上映。我们认为后疫情时代，从政策方向到内容产出，再到观影人群均有望迎来回暖，而猫眼作为电影行业平台及内容方，业绩及估值有望迎来修复。

2023E outlook: content and moviegoing recovery; Maoyan’s valuation rebounds

China’s moviegoing industry had a good start in 2023 with the Chinese New Year festival. Box-office takings came to RMB6.76bn as moviegoers were drawn to quality Chinese films and the premieres of foreign movies such as Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania. Post-pandemic, we expect the film market to recover with improvements in the policy direction, content output and moviegoer numbers. As a platform and content provider, Maoyan’s business performance and valuation would likely recover in 2023E.