JD.com
(9618 HK)
22Q4业绩点评：收入受宏观恢复进度影响或将短期承压，下半年复苏可期
22Q4 revenue in line; 23H1E could see brief pressure from a slow macro recovery but we expect H2E will improve
TP:HKD234.00 BUY (maintain) |
投资要点/Investment Thesis
投资要点/Investment Thesis
北京时间2023年3月9日，京东集团（9618.SW）发布2022年第四季度和全年业绩报告。2022年第四季度，公司实现营业收入2,954亿元人民币，同比增长7.1%，基本符合彭博一致预期；全年净收入首次突破万亿元达10,462亿元，同比增加9.9%。从结构上看，22年第四季度，产品收入2,376亿元，同比增加1.2%；服务收入578亿元，同比增长40.3%，其中市场及广告服务收入246亿元（同比+10.6%）、物流和其他服务收入332亿元（同比+75.1%）。利润端表现亮眼：2022年第四季度 Non-GAAP净利润为77亿元；全年Non-GAAP净利润为282亿元，同比增加64%，净利润率为2.7%。费用端进一步优化，降本增效持续推进：2022年第四季度研发/销售/管理/履约费用率分别1.5%/4.1%/1.2%/5.7%，分别同比优化0.01/0.8/0.1/0.2 pct。
22Q4 revenue in line; 2022 non-GAAP net profit was outstanding, up 64% yoy
Revenue: 22Q4 revenue came to RMB295.4bn, up 7.1% yoy, in line with Bloomberg consensus, while 2022 net income crossed the RMB1tr threshold for the first time at RMB1.05tr, up 9.9% yoy. The 22Q4 revenue mix was as follows: RMB237.6bn product revenue, up 1.2% yoy; RMB57.8bn services revenue, up 40.3% yoy (comprising market and advertising services at RMB24.6bn (up 10.6% yoy) and logistics and other services at RMB33.2bn (up 75.1% yoy)).
Profit: profit performance was outstanding: 22Q4 non-GAAP net profit was RMB7.7bn; while in 2022, non-GAAP net profit rose 64% yoy to RMB28.2bn and profit margin was 2.7%. The company trimmed expenses and did well to reduce cost and raise efficiency. 22Q4 R&D/sales/management/performance expense ratios were 1.5/4.1/1.2/5.7%, improving 0.01/0.8/0.1/0.2ppt yoy.
运营数据方面，2022年日均活跃用户数同比双位数增长，零售用户购物频次和用户平均贡献收入（ARPU）继续保持增长势头。截至2022年四季度末，京东PLUS会员数量达3400万，保持高速增长态势。
Operational data: average daily active users grew at a double-digit yoy in 2022, while retail user shopping frequency and ARPU maintained their growth momentum. By end-22Q4, JD had 34m Plus members, maintaining the high-growth trend.
核心观点：
京东零售表现基本预期内，品牌矩阵持续升级拓宽
2022年第四季度，京东零售收入达2,589亿元，同比增加3.6%；经营利润达78.62亿元，同比增加47.1%。公司加速线下门店零售数智化升级，第四季度，京东到家、京东新百货与海澜之家和迪卡侬等时尚、运动品牌达成战略合作。同时，公司不断丰富品类，满足用户多元化需求，截至2022年四季度末，京东零售的第三方商家数量连续8个季度取得20%以上的同比增长，其中，2022年新入驻京东商家数量同比增长34%。
Retail business in line as brand matrix upgrades and expansion continued
JD’s retail business posted revenue of RMB258.9bn in 22Q4, 3.6% yoy; while operating profit came to RMB7.86bn, up 47.1% yoy. In the quarter, the company accelerated the digital upgrade of its physical retail stores, while JD Daojia and The J Shop formed strategic cooperative ties with fashion and sports brands like HLA Group and Decathlon. JD also enriched its product matrix to fulfill diverse user needs. As of end-22Q4, its third-party retail merchants increased more than 20% yoy, doing so for eight straight quarters. The annual increase in new merchants to JD.com rose 34% yoy in 2022.
京东物流收入及盈利超市场预期，一体化供应链客户粘性持续增强
2022年第四季度，京东物流收入达430亿元，同比增长41.1%，保持快速增长; 经营利润达9亿元，同比增长23.1%。其中，京东物流外部客户收入同比增长69.3%，占物流总收入比例70.0%。2022年，京东物流全年营收达1374亿元，其中一体化供应链客户收入达774亿元，稳健的业绩增长主要得益于外部一体化供应链客户数和单客户平均收入持续增长。公司持续加大实体投入，截至2022年12月31日，京东物流运营超过1,500个仓库，过去三年新增超700个，仓储总面积（含云仓）超过3,000万平方米，在全球拥有近90个保税仓、直邮仓和海外仓。
Logistics outperformed: deepening customer traction in integrated supply chain
22Q4: JD Logistics posted revenue of RMB43bn in 22Q4, maintaining its fast uptrend at 41.1% yoy; and operating profit of RMB900m, up 23.1% yoy; revenue from external customers increased 69.3% yoy and they accounted for 70.0% of logistics revenue.
2022: revenue reached RMB137.4bn, of which integrated supply chain customers generated RMB77.4bn. The steady growth was mainly due to continuous growth in the number of external integrated supply chain customers and in average revenue per customer. The company stepped up physical investments: it operates more than 1,500 warehouses as of 31 Dec 2022, having added over 700 in the past three years. Its total storage area (including cloud warehouses) exceeds 30m sqm; JD has nearly 90 bonded warehouses, direct mail warehouses and foreign warehouses around the world.
新业务亏损有效收缩，京喜供应链不断下沉
2022年第四季度，新业务收入为47.6亿元，同比降低42.0%，经营利润为-11.5亿元，经营利润率为-24.2%，同比增加15.0pct。据36氪报道，京喜的剩余业务已于2022年与京东极速版合并，京东在主站APP也开始更多采用京喜和下沉版的供应链。我们认为，平台下沉市场用户渗透率有望进一步提升。
Narrowing new business losses; absorbing Jingxi supply chain, lower-tier market
New businesses generated RMB4.76bn revenue in 22Q4, down 42.0% yoy, while making operating loss of RMB1.15bn and an operating loss margin of 24.2%, improving 15.0ppt yoy. 36Kr reported that Jingxi’s remaining businesses merged into JD’s ultra-fast offering in 2022, and JD began to use more of Jingxi’s supply chain and lower-tier markets on its main app. We believe lower-tier user penetration will increase on the platform.
投资建议/Investment Ideas
投资建议：受消费者信心恢复滞后及公司上线“百亿补贴”业务影响，我们预计，Q1及上半年收入端承压，后续季度有望逐步恢复，调整京东2023-2025年收入为11770/ 13665/ 14977亿元（23/24年前值分别为12031/13667亿元），同比增长12.5%/16.1%/9.6%；2023-2025年归属股东净利润（Non-GAAP）分别为305/362/424亿元（23/24年前值分别为332/405亿元），同比增长8.2%/18.7%/16.9%。我们长期持续看好公司供应链和物流核心能力的发展潜力，我们给予2023年21x PE，目标价为234 港元，维持“买入”评级。
Valuation and risks
The slow consumer confidence recovery and JD’s RMB10bn subsidy initiative could add pressure to 23Q1 and even 23H1 revenue. We believe subsequent quarters will recover and adjusted our forecasts accordingly. We project revenue of RMB1.18tr/1.37tr/ 1.50tr in 2023/24/25E, up 12.5/16.1/9.6% yoy; our previous numbers for 2023/24E were RMB1.20tr/ 1.37tr. Our adjusted non-GAAP net profit forecasts are RMB30.5bn/36.2bn/ 42.4bn in 2023/24/25E, up 8.2/18.7/16.9% yoy (our previous numbers for 2023/24E were at RMB33.2bn/40.5bn). We are still bullish about JD’s supply chain development potential and core logistics capabilities for the long term. We assign a 21x PE in 2023E, which derives our target price of HKD234. We maintain our BUY rating.
风险提示：1.政策监管风险 2.电商行业竞争加剧 3.新业务发展不及预期 4.海外上市监管政策风险
Risks include: regulatory policy risks; intensifying ecommerce competition; worse-than-expected new business development; and overseas listing regulatory policy risks.
Email: equity@tfisec.com
TFI research report website:
(pls scan the QR code)
本文件由天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供专业投资者作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、链接、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本文件及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本文件或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源于天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本文件，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本文件所引用之数据或资料可能得自第三方，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对第三方所提供数据或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本文件所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本文件中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本文件并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全了解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及后果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日后的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本文件的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本文件的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。