Huali Industrial Group
(300979 CH)
毛利率稳健，静待订单拐点
2022E preview: stable gross margins as the company heads toward an order inflection point
BUY (maintain) |
投资要点/Investment Thesis
投资要点/Investment Thesis
订单稳健毛利率稳定，2022顺利收官
公司发布22年业绩快报，估计2022全年销售运动鞋2.21亿双，同增4.65%；营收205.69亿，同增17.7%，归母净利32.22亿，同增16.4%；其中22Q4营收51.95亿，同增7.5%，归母净利7.76亿，同增0.7%。
全球运动鞋消费需求仍稳健增长，部分运动品牌在22H2通过调整制造商订单等方式降低库存，对公司订单产生一定影响。为应对客户订单波动，公司通过持续加强竞争力优势稳固客户粘性、积极拓展新客户等方式确保订单稳健；通过提升产能柔性和持续改善成本控制，保持毛利率稳定，22Q4毛利率环比略有增长。
Order and gross margin stability smoothed the 2022E revenue trend
The company released preliminary earnings results for 2022E, showing it sold 221m pairs of sports shoes in 2022E, up 4.65% yoy. This brings revenue to RMB20.57bn, up 17.7% yoy, and net profit to RMB3.22bn, up 16.4% yoy. 22Q4E revenue amounted to RMB5.20bn, up 7.5% yoy, and net profit to RMB776m, up 0.7% yoy.
While global consumer demand for sports shoes continued to grow steadily, a number of sports brands reduced inventory in 22H2 by adjusting manufacturer orders, which impacted Huali’s orders. In the face of order fluctuations, the company kept orders stable by leveraging its competitive advantages to strengthen customer stickiness and take on new customers. By increasing production capacity elasticity and improving cost control, it kept gross margins stable, which led to a slight uptick qoq in gross margin in 22Q4E.
多数品牌欧美增长稳定，公司凭借优质品质与服务加深合作
公司实行优质客户多样化策略和产品专注慢跑和休闲运动的策略，在行业内积累良好口碑。客户大多为国际知名运动品牌，在欧美市场占比高，根据部分客户财报，大多数品牌在欧美增长相对稳定。公司各工厂在客户对品质、交期、开发能力、成本控制等方面定期考核中名列前茅，尤其交付准时率高，成为客户非常信赖的合作伙伴。
对于客户的紧急补货订单，公司将用最快速度响应客户需求，部分订单可做到2-3周交货。此外，公司提前与品牌方召开产能规划会议，讨论规划中长期产能需求，以便提前协调产能准备，将产能利用率控制在较为合理水平。
Europe and US brands saw stable growth; quality delivery firmed brand ties
Huali rolled out strategies to diversify quality customers and focus on jogging and leisure sports, which good reputation in the industry. Most of its customers are well-known international sports brands with large market shares in the European and US markets. Based on customer financial reports, most of the European and US brands have been stable. Huali’s factories are highly regarded in regular customer assessments for their quality, delivery, development capability and cost control, with high rates of on-time deliveries especially earning the trust of customers.
When it came to urgent orders for replenishments, the company would respond to customer needs quickly, delivering some orders within 2-3 weeks. Huali held capacity planning meetings with brands in advance to discuss medium to long-term capacity requirements. This allowed it to coordinate capacity preparations ahead of time and ensure reasonable capacity utilization.
调节现有工厂+收购新建，产能持续增长陆续放量
2023年产能持续增长，一方面现有工厂提供弹性，通过合理调节员工加班时间、员工人数编制管控及招聘节奏管控等来调节产能；另一方面，公司收购的工厂及23年新建工厂将逐步投产贡献产能。未来，公司仍将保持积极的产能扩张，或通过购买土地新建厂房、租赁厂房、在原有厂房增加生产线、购买厂房等方式来扩大产能。
Production capacity growth: integration of newly acquired and current factories
Huali’s production capacities will continue to grow this year. Its current factories provide production capacity elasticity via reasonable adjustments of overtime hours, staff strength management and recruitment momentum. At the same time, newly acquired factories as well as new ones being built in 2023E will gradually enter production to unlock capacity. We believe that Huali will continue to expand production capacity in the future, whether by purchasing land to build new plants, leasing plants, adding production lines to current plants or purchasing plants.
细致分解生产流程，提升自动化水平贡献毛利增长
公司对工艺、工序做细致分解，在适合标准化的工序上不断提升自动化率，例如在鞋底生产、鞋面裁切、缝纫等环节，通过定制化设备、夹制具的改进等方案，提高生产自动化水平，从而提升生产效率，贡献毛利率增长。
Using process deconstruction to increase automation and expand gross profit
The company continually deconstructs processes and procedures to improve automation rates in processes that are suitable for standardization. For example, in the production of soles, cutting of shoe uppers and sewing, it used customized equipment and improved clamping tools to increase production automation, thereby raising production efficiency and expanding gross profit margins.
投资建议/Investment Ideas
调整盈利预测，维持“买入”评级。公司响应消费者需求和运动品牌格局变化，继续夯实与老牌运动品牌合作基础，巩固并提升与客户合作紧密度；积极与新兴运动品牌合作，快速提升份额。考虑到运动品牌终端仍处于去库存阶段，供应链订单有所承压，我们预计公司2023-24年收入分别为226、259亿元（原值分别为237、288亿元），归母净利分别为35、41亿元（原值分别为39、46亿元），对应EPS分别为3.0、3.5元/股（原值分别为3.3、4.0元/股），对应PE分别为19、17x。
Valuation and risks
We lower our forecast while maintaining our BUY rating. While sports brands faced consumer demand and industry changes, Huali strengthened business fundamentals by firming ties with the brands and enhanced cooperation with customers. It added emerging sports brands to increase its market share. Considering that sports brands have been in a destocking cycle and putting supply chain orders under pressure, we forecast Huali’s revenue will arrive at RMB22.6bn/25.9bn in 2023/24E (previously RMB23.7bn/28.8bn) and net profit at RMB3.5bn/4.1bn (previously RMB3.9bn/4.6bn), corresponding to RMB3.0/3.5 EPS (previously RMB3.3/4.0) and 19x/17x PE.
风险提示：海外下游运动需求不足致订单不及预期；原材料与人工成本波动上升；海外疫情反复，产能拓展不及预期等风险。业绩快报仅为初步测算结果，具体数据以公司正式发布的22年年报为准。
Risks include: lower-than-expected orders on weak foreign downstream sports demand; worsening volatility in raw material and labor costs; persistent pandemic effects in foreign markets; and production capacity expansion falling short of expectations. Note: Huali’s performance report is based on preliminary data that is subject to the release of its final 2022 earnings report.
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