收入表现稳健，净利润超预期增长。公司披露FY23Q3（12月底季度）业绩。本季度阿里实现营收2477.56亿元（RMB，下同），yoy+2%，基本符合彭博一致预期。在国内消费需求减弱，供应链物流受到影响的环境下，公司收入相对稳健。利润端，得益于公司运营效率持续提升和成本优化，公司利润超预期增长；22Q3成本及费用总额占收入比例同比下降，其中销售费用率同比缩减3pct至12%。经调整EBITA 520.48亿，yoy+16%，经调整净利润为499.32亿元，yoy+12%，超出彭博一致预期15.4 %。

Stable revenue performance and faster-than-expected net profit growth

Alibaba published quarterly earnings results for FY23Q3 (Oct-Dec 2022) with revenue at RMB247.75bn, yoy+2%, basically in line with Bloomberg consensus expectations. Its revenue results are relatively stable considering weakness in Chinese consumer demand in the period and the impact on supply chain logistics. Profit came in above expectations, however, boosted by operating efficiency and cost optimization. Costs and expenses as a percentage of revenue fell yoy in the quarter, while sales expense ratio shrank 3ppt yoy to 12%. Adjusted EBITA came to RMB52.05bn, yoy+16%, and adjusted net profit was RMB49.93bn, yoy+12%, 15.4% above Bloomberg consensus forecast.

多业务盈利情况改善，关注经济复苏下多业务回暖。分业务来看，公司多项目减亏明显，菜鸟/数字媒体/本地生活/国际商业经调整EBITA同比减亏87%/98%/38%/74%，EBITA margin分别提升1 pct/17pct/17pct/14 pct。中国商业、云计算业务利润率基本维持稳健，同比提升0.8 pct /1 pct。

Profitability improved across its multiple businesses amid the economic recovery

The narrowing of losses was a clear trend across Alibaba's multiple projects. Cainiao/digital media/local life/international businesses narrowed their adjusted EBITA losses by 87/98/38/74% yoy, while EBITA margins widened 1/17/17/14ppt. China commercial/cloud computing profit margins stayed stable with yoy upticks of 0.8/1ppt. 

1）中国商业：收入同比下滑-1%至1700亿元，淘宝和天猫的GMV（剔除未支付订单）同比中单位数下降，CMR收入yoy-9%至913亿元，主要由于12月季度居民消费需求较弱（22年10-12月社零总额同比变动-0.5%/-5.9%/-1.8%），同时，疫情原因物流、供应链受阻。直营及其他收入同比增长10%至744亿元，主要受益于盒马同店收入增长，以及医疗保健需求增长推动阿里健康收入提升。利润方面，淘特优化获客投入、盒马提升毛利率与履约效率、淘菜菜整体效率提高，三项业务亏损均有效收窄。我们预期23年随出行场景修复，服装、户外、美妆等可选消费需求逐步释放，同时公司坚定投入消费者体验优化，公司中国商业有望持续修复。

China commerce: revenue fell 1% yoy to RMB170bn, with Taobao and Tmall GMV (excluding unpaid orders) down by mid-single digits yoy, customer management revenue (CMR) fell 9% yoy to RMB91.3bn. Key drag factors included weak consumer retail demand in the December quarter (retail sales fell 0.5/5.9/1.8% yoy during Oct-Dec 2022) and pandemic disruptions in the logistics and supply chain markets. Direct sales and other income increased 10% yoy to RMB74.4bn, benefiting from an increase in Freshippo same-store sales and higher demand for medical care, which drove up Alibaba's health earnings. Profit-wise, Taote optimized customer acquisition investments, Freshippo increased gross margin and performance efficiency, and Taocaicai improved its efficiency, which led all three businesses to effectively narrow their losses. As travel resumes in 2023E, we expect demand for consumer discretionary products like clothing, outdoor goods and cosmetics will recover incrementally. With Alibaba set to invest into consumer experience optimization, we believe its China business recovery will continue. 

2）国际商业：收入yoy+18%至195亿元，Lazada、速卖通、Trendyol 和 Daraz 的整体订单同比增长 3%。经营亏损大幅收窄，得益于Trendyol收入增长以及Lazada提供更多增值服务推动变现率提升，及运营效率优化。

Global commerce: revenue came to RMB19.5bn in the quarter, yoy+18%, while orders from Lazada, AliExpress, Trendyol and Daraz collectively rose 3% yoy. Operating loss narrowed significantly when revenues increased with Trendyol and Lazada adding value-added services to improve realization rates and optimize operating efficiency.

3）云业务：收入yoy+3%至202亿元（抵消跨分部交易影响），主要由公有云业务增长驱动，本季度非互联网行业收入同比增长9%，占云业务总收入的53%（环比9月季度减少5pct），其中金融服务、教育、汽车行业收入稳健增长，本季度可以看到来自互联网行业的需求环比提升。业绩会上CEO张勇表示阿里巴巴将全力构建好AI预训练大模型，为市面上的模型和应用提供好算力的支撑，我们预计阿里云有望充分受益于需求增长。

Cloud: revenue rose 3% yoy to RMB20.2bn (offsetting the impact of cross-segment transactions), mainly driven by growth of its public cloud business as non-internet revenue increased 9% yoy in the quarter, accounting for 53% of cloud business revenue (vs a 5ppt decrease in the September quarter). The financial services, education and automobile segments saw steady growth in revenue. We observed that demand from the internet industry increased qoq in the quarter. At the earnings conference, CEO Zhang Yong said Alibaba will make every effort to build a large AI pre-training model to provide good computing power support for models and applications on the market. We expect Alibaba Cloud will fully benefit from demand growth.

4）本地生活服务：收入yoy+6%至132亿元，主要来源于到家方面饿了么有效承接杂货、药物等高价值非餐饮订单，推动AOV同比提升，同时到家业务亏损持续收窄，UE模型改善。23年1月高德、飞猪需求逐步复苏，有望推动本地生活业务回暖。

Local life services: revenue rose 6% yoy to RMB13.2bn, mainly from Ele.me’s effective acceptance of high-value non-catering orders, such as groceries and medicines, which boosted a yoy increase in AOV. At the same time, Daojia’s business losses continued to narrow and the UE model was improved. In January 2023, demand for AutoNavi and Fliggy recovered, which would likely drive the recovery of the local life segment.

5）菜鸟：抵消跨分部交易后收入yoy+27%至166亿元，抵消前收入中72%来自外部客户。收入增长主要来自境内服务模式升级带来的本地消费物流服务增长，以及国际物流网络拓展对跨境物流服务收入的推动。

Cainiao: after offsetting cross-segment transactions, revenue rose 27% yoy to RMB16.6bn, with 72% of revenue from external customers before the offset. Revenue growth mainly came from local consumer logistics services the growth, brought by Chinese service model upgrades, while expansion of its international logistics networks boosted cross-border logistics service income.

6）数字媒体及娱乐：收入为76亿元，yoy-6%，主要由于阿里影业收入下降所致。利润层面连续7个季度亏损同比收窄。本季度优酷日付费用户规模同比增长2%，受益于对优质内容的投资以及88VIP会员计划。

Digital media and entertainment: revenue arrived at RMB7.6bn in the quarter, down 6% yoy, mainly due to a decline in revenue from Alibaba Pictures. Losses narrowed yoy for seven consecutive quarters, however. Youku's daily paying users grew 2% yoy, benefiting from investments into premium content and the 88VIP membership program.