本周（2023年2月27日至3月3日）恒生指数收盘20567.54点，上涨约2.79%。

The Hang Seng Index closed the week of 27 Feb to 3 Mar 2023 at 20,567.54 points, up 2.79% wow. We discuss the key events that drove the market last week:

3月3日公布的2023年2月财新中国服务业PMI录得55.0，较前月上升2.1个百分点，为2022年9月以来新高。本地时间3月2日，美联储高官博斯蒂克表示，他倾向于在3月政策会议上继续加息25个基点，如果经济数据强于预期，就需要调整对未来利率走势的预期，美联储可能在今年夏季中后期暂停加息。我们认为2023年市场主要影响因素包括，分子端中国经济复苏斜率及结构，分母端流动性环境和地缘风险溢价。整体而言，2023年中国经济景气有望整体回升，同时流动性环境大概率好于去年，为资产价格修复奠定基础。

China’s PMI far above expectations; confidence builds for return to market boom

Bostic talks hikes and a potential pause: China’s February 2023 services PMI came to 55.0, hitting a new high since September 2022 and rising 2.1ppt mom, according to Caixin data released on 3 March. The day before (based on local time), US Federal Reserve senior official Raphael Bostic said he is inclined to continue raising interest rates by 25bp at the Fed’s policy meeting in March; if economic data are stronger than expected, expectations for future interest rate movements would need to be adjusted. He added that the Fed might be in a position to pause rate hikes by mid-to-late summer this year. 

Hopes for a better Chinese economy: we believe that the main factors affecting the market this year include numerator data such as the incline and structure of China’s economic recovery and denominator data such as the liquidity environment and geo-risk premiums. We expect China’s economic environment to pick up in 2023, while the liquidity environment would likely improve from last year, providing the fundamentals for a recovery in asset prices.

由于去年年末至1月市场较多交易了宽松预期，2月开始随美国1月宏观数据公布，紧缩预期再度升温，叠加地缘因素影响风险偏好，美元指数、美债收益率明显反弹，港股市场有所调整。

DXY and US bond yields rebound: Easing expectations pervaded market trading from late last year to January this year, followed by a pick-up in February on tightening sentiment after the release of US macro data in January. Overlaid by geopolitical factors shaping the risk appetite, the US Dollar Index and US bond yields have rebounded strongly, alongside adjustments in the Hong Kong stock market. 

3月1日中国公布2月PMI数据52.6，为2012年5月以来最高水平，显示内需复苏势头强劲。同时，流动性方面，市场对美联储政策利率预期快速调整后，观察到本周WIRP隐含的加息峰值以及年末利率水平总体趋稳，10Y美债收益率暂未继续上升。中国PMI大超预期，市场对景气回升的信心增强。

Feb PMI a new high since May 2012: China released data on 1 March with February PMI at 52.6 points, the highest level since May 2012, reflecting a strong recovery in domestic demand. At the same time, after rapid adjustments to Fed rate expectations in the liquidity market, we observe a peak in interest rate hikes as implied by WIRP this week and the general stabilization of interest rate levels at the year end, with the 10Y US bond yield appearing to have halted its rise for now. China’s PMI greatly surpassed expectations, raising confidence for a return to market boom.