投资要点/Investment Thesis

理想汽车22Q4业绩概览 – 22Q4毛利恢复，Non-gaap利润超预期：Q4收入176.5亿元，同比增长66%，符合彭博一致预期；毛利率20%，略低于彭博一致预期1.6pp；Non-gaap净利润9.68亿元，大超一致预期的3.7亿元，同比增长41%。

22Q4 key points: gross profit ticks up and non-GAAP profit exceeded expectations

Li Auto’s 22Q4 revenue amounted to RMB17.65bn, up 66%, in line with Bloomberg consensus expectations (BBG). Gross margin was 20%, 1.6ppt lower than BBG. Non-GAAP net profit rose 41% yoy to RMB968m, far above BBG’s RMB370m.

销量情况 -理想Q4共交付46319台，L系列已验证产品力&品牌力，Q1指引5.2~5.5万辆，公司目标今年拿下SUV 30-50万元市场20%的份额：12/1/2月理想分别交付量21233/15141/16620台，12月创公司最高单月交付记录，也是新势力整车中最快实现单月交付超过2万的品牌。新车型L9和L8自Q4上线以来分别创下9-12月中国大型SUV销量冠军和12月中大型SUV销量冠军，热销的背后是强大产品力和品牌力的支撑，验证我们去年7月深度报告中的观点。详见《理想汽车-从One和L9的产品产略看理想未来双平台的增量》。Q4来自理想新车型销量的高增速同样验证了其产能爬坡能力与较强供应链管理能力。Q1销量指引为5.2~5.5万辆即3月需交付2.0~2.3万辆，符合我们的预期。从在手储备订单和产能爬坡趋势去看，我们预计Q2有望实现单月3万的销量，建议重点关注/跟踪理想Q2销量。

Sales: Li Auto delivered 46,319 vehicles in Q4, verifying its L series product and brand strength. The company guided 23Q1E sales at 52,000-55,000 units. It is aiming for a 20% share of the RMB300,000-500,000 SUV market this year. Li Auto delivered 21,233/15,141/16,620 vehicles in December/January/February, where December set a record for highest monthly deliveries. Li Auto was also the first among new energy vehicle brands to break past 20,000 monthly deliveries. Post-launch in Q4, models L9 and L8 achieved the highest sales of large SUVs in China from September to December and the highest sales of mid-to-large SUVs in December. We believe the L-series product and brand strengths are driving its popularity. This affirms our review published in July 2022 (see Li Auto: Future Incremental Impact of ONE and L9 Dual Platform for details). 

The new models’ fast-growth sales in Q4 attest to Li Auto’s ability to expand production capacities and manage its supply chain. Breaking down the 23Q1E sales guidance of 52,000-55,000 cars, it means 20,000-23,000 units would be delivered in March, which is in line with our expectations. Judging from the company’s reserve orders in hand and its production capacity uptrend, we expect it will achieve monthly sales of 30,000 cars in Q2E. We suggest that investors monitor Li Auto’s Q2 sales volume trends.

盈利情况 – 如我们业绩前瞻预期，Q4毛利回升，新车型上线后首个季度即实现Non-gaap盈利，且Non-gaap利润超预期：毛利已恢复至20%，但是略低于我们业绩前瞻给出的21%预期，但我们认为L9在新平台和46万的价格带基础上具备更高的毛利空间，随着L9&8&7的高效产能爬坡，展望23e还有持续提升的空间。Q4总费用为37亿元，同比增长57%，低于我们此前预期，展露出较好费用管理能力；其中研发费用为20.7亿元，同比增长68%，和我们预期一致；销售、一般及费用的增长来自于新门店以及新车型的推出，16.3亿元，同比增长45%，低于我们预期的18.4亿元。我们预计23年理想仍会加大研发端的投入，预计投入超过100亿元的研发费用，销售费用端因为新车型和门店会持续增长，但销售费用率或呈下降趋势。

Profitability: in line with our performance forecast, Q4 gross profit rebounded and the new models achieved non-GAAP profit in the first quarter after launch, with non-GAAP profit exceeded expectations. Gross profit margin grew to 20%, slightly lower than our 21% forecast, but we see more growth headroom for L9 to increase gross profit based on the new platform and pricing around RMB460,000. With Li Auto ramping up high-efficiency production capacities for L9, L8 and L7, we expect growth will continue in 2023E. 22Q4 costs amounted to RMB3.7bn, up 57% yoy, lower than we had expected, indicating better cost management. R&D expenses came to RMB2.07bn, up 68% yoy, in line with our expectations. Sales, general and other expenses increased 45% yoy to RMB1.63bn, due to launches of new stores and new models, lower than our expectation of RMB1.84bn. Li Auto is likely to keep stepping up R&D investment in 2023E, where we are expecting more than RMB10bn. Sales expenses would continue to increase with new models and new stores, but we believe sales expense ratios could see a downtrend.

23年展望：理想于2月8号正式发布L7，三个配置air、pro、max完整覆盖30-40万的价格区间，中大型5座suv定位于更年轻的2-3口之家的消费群体。基于L9&8在22Q4的爆款表现，我们看好L7或能成为中大型5座SUV空间&智能化的天花板车型之一，预计23e销量10-12万台，单月销量破万；L9&L8我们预计23e整年销量为16万台左右，单月销量1.2万~1.4万；整体23e理想销量我们预计26~28万台，对应收入增速破百，同时随着x平台新车型L9、L8、L7的规模效应或能实现整年Non-gaap净利润转正。

2023E: X platform could drive high revenue growth and show non-GAAP profit

Li Auto officially rolled out the L7 model on 8 Feb in Air, Pro and Max configurations, pricing them RMB300,000-400,000. The mid-to-large five-seater SUV targets young families of 2-3 persons. Based on robust L9 and L8 sales in 22Q4, we expect L7 will also be counted among the mid-to-large five-seater SUV frontrunners in the market and among smart driving models. We project L7 sales at 100,000-120,000 cars in 2023E and monthly sales at over 10,000 units. As for L9 and L8, we estimate 2023E sales will amount to about 160,000 vehicles, with monthly sales at 12,000-14,000 units. In total, we expect Li Auto to sell 260,000-280,000 vehicles in 2023E, equivalent to a revenue growth rate of over 100%. The scale effect of new models L9, L8 and L7 on its X platform could well drive positive 2023E non-GAAP net earnings.

行业展望与判断 - 我们看好新势力整车中短期来自于Beta的反弹，主要关注点为政策、流动性、疫后苏等带来的变化；今年来自于基本面的拐点我们认为主要分两个阶段去看，第一个是来自春节后的新车型订单，即疫情缓解后消费者的购车需求是否稳固，Q1Q2有望看到大量新车型的发布与落地；第二个则是Q3后，随着新车产能爬坡的规模效应，或带来的利润端的改善。

Industry: we are bullish about the NEV market on a beta recovery in the short to medium term. We see policy, liquidity and the post-pandemic recovery as the key macro catalysts. We believe two phases could occur in 2023E as the market edges toward a potential inflection point on fundamentals:

(1) new model orders post-Chinese New Year: the post-pandemic easing could stabilize consumer demand for car purchases, while we expect the rollout of a large number of new models in Q1 and Q2; and

(2) post-Q3 profit improvement: this could be driven by the ramp-up of new car production capacities.

投资建议/Investment Ideas