Cloud Music
(9899 HK)
22年报点评：内容和社区推动付费用户提升，盈利改善明显
Initiating coverage: 2022 profit lift; better content and community traction brought more paying users
TP：HKD142.00 BUY (Initiation) |
投资要点/Investment Thesis
投资要点/Investment Thesis
事件：
北京时间2023年2月23日，网易云音乐（09899.HK）发布2022年年度业绩报告。公司 2022年营收 89.92 亿元，较去年同期69.98 亿元同比增长28.5%；分业务来看，2022年公司在线音乐服务收入 36.99亿元，同比增长12.4%，主要由于会员订阅销售收入的大幅增长；社交娱乐服务及其他收入 52.93亿元，同比增长42.8%。公司毛利提升至12.93亿元，同比增长806.3%，主要是由于收入的大幅上升以及公司对内容授权费的控制；2022年净亏损2.2亿元，调整后净亏损（剔除股权激励开支及可转换可赎回优先股公允价值变动的期间损益）为 1.15 亿元，较去年同期亏损10.44亿元大幅收窄89.0%。
2022 revenue lift; gross profit up 806% yoy; net loss sharply reduced by 89% yoy
Key financials: NetEase Cloud Music (9899 HK) recently released its 2022 earnings report with revenue at RMB8.99bn, up 28.5% yoy from RMB7.0bn. By business category, online music services generated revenue of RMB3.70bn, up 12.4% yoy, mainly on much higher subscription sales revenue; while social entertainment services and other businesses came to RMB5.29bn last year, up 42.8% yoy. Gross profit increased to RMB1.29bn, a whopping 806.3% increase yoy, mainly due to a sharp increase in revenue and control over content licensing fees. As a result, the company made a net loss of just RMB220m in 2022 (RMB115m after adjustments, excluding equity incentive expenses and gains/losses from fair value changes in redeemable convertible preferred shares). This sharply narrowed the RMB1.04bn loss in 2021 by 89.0%.
运营数据：截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日，网易云音乐在线音乐服务MAU为1.89亿人，月付费用户数为3,827万人；社交娱乐服务月付费用户数为133万人，每月每付费用户收入为326.0元；每名DAU平均每日花费约78.9分钟听歌，33.4%的音乐播放来自于平台推荐。
Operational data: NetEase Cloud Music’s online music service MAUs amounted to 189m MAU as of 31 Dec 2022, including 38.27m monthly paying users. Its social entertainment services had 1.33m monthly paying users and generated RMB326.0 monthly revenue per paying user. Each DAU listens to music for 78.9 minutes per day on average; and 33.4% of music playback stems from platform recommendations.
点评：
在线音乐服务：随着内容建设上的逐步完善，付费率有望驱动订阅收入继续增长。2022年在线音乐服务板块收入为36.99亿元，同比增加12.4%，主要由于会员订阅销售收入大幅增长。订阅贡献30.37亿元营收，较去年同期增加31%。从内容端，随着版权回归非独家状态，公司持续获取更多优质内容，如福茂唱片、SM娱乐、时代峰峻、YG娱乐等公司版权，以完善平台内容库。截至 2022 年12月 31 日内容库包含超过1.16亿首音乐曲目。从独立音乐人端，公司重点扶持幕后音乐创作者，加固平台原创音乐的优势，截至2022年12月平台拥有超61.1万名注册独立音乐人（YoY +52.75%），为公司提供约260万首音乐曲目（YoY +36.84%）。我们认为，随着版权成本的持续优化，平台内容的丰富，叠加公司原创音乐的优势，会员订阅用户数有望继续提升。
Our takeaways: better monetization from content, ecosystem, copyright initiatives
Online music services: as the company continues to develop content, we expect rising rates to drive subscription revenue growth. 2022 revenue from online music services came to RMB3.70bn, up 12.4% yoy, mainly on subscription sales climbing 31% yoy to RMB3.04bn.
Content development: as copyrights became non-exclusive, Cloud Music acquired more quality content, such as the copyrights of companies like Fumao Records, SM Entertainment, Times Peak and YG Entertainment to improve its content library on the platform. Cloud Music’s content library holds more than 116m music tracks as of 31 Dec 2022. The company also supports independent musicians such as behind-the-scenes music creators to strengthen the advantage of its original music offerings. The platform has more than 611,000 registered independent musicians as of December 2022, a 52.75% increase from a year ago, who contribute about 2.6m music tracks (up 36.84% yoy). We believe that as the company continues to optimize copyright costs, enrich content and hone its competitive edge in original music, its paying subscriber numbers will continue to rise.
社交娱乐服务：多元化玩法有望进一步提升平台流量变现效率。2022年社交娱乐板块收入为52.93亿元，同比增加42.8%。拆分来看，社交娱乐月付费用户数为133万人，同比增加95%，同时社交娱乐板块ARPU稀释降至326元。我们认为，云音乐的音频直播主要还是对于原本社区生态的沉淀、延伸以及商业变现，以促进用户为内容和情感付费。未来从供给端而言，通过更多平台音乐人的开播有望将平台新用户转化为社交娱乐的MAU，进而转化为直播的付费用户。此外，公司持续拓展音乐消费场景，例如与网易游戏合作、进军多终端市场。我们认为，通过占据不同终端的流量入口，培养用户习惯，多元化用户体验，公司有望探索更丰富的多终端会员体系，从而进一步提高平台商业变现能力。
Social entertainment services: we believe that the company’s effects to diversify user scenarios have led to more effective monetization of platform user traffic. The social entertainment segment generated RMB5.29bn revenue in 2022, up 42.8% yoy, with 1.33m monthly paying users, up 95% yoy, which reduced segmental ARPU dilution to RMB326. We believe Cloud Music’s audio livestreams are mainly geared toward deepening traction of the community ecosystem, widening its reach and enhancing monetization so that users pay for content and emotional satisfaction. From a supply perspective, adding more musicians to the platform helps convert casual users to social entertainment MAUs, then to paying users of livestreams. Cloud Music is also expanding user scenarios via collaborations with NetEase Games and entry to the multi-terminal market. By positioning in different terminals’ user traffic entryways, it gains exposure to user behavior and varied user experiences. We expect this will help the platform explore a richer multi-terminal membership system and improve its monetization capability.
版权成本优化提振毛利率，费用率稳中有降。2022年公司毛利率14.4%，较去年的2.0%大幅提升，主要系业务规模扩大以及版权成本优化所致。期间，公司销售费用率为7.1%，同比增加0.9pct；管理费用率为1.9%，同比下降1.9pct；研究费率为11.2%，同比下降1.2pct。我们认为，未来在线音频行业整体的版权成本结构将更为合理，随着公司业务规模的扩大和版权成本优化措施的实施，利润率有望进一步提升。
Copyrights: the company’s copyright cost optimization efforts have led to better gross margins, and expense ratios have been on a stable slight decline. Gross profit margin was 14.4% in 2022, a significant increase from 2.0% in the previous year, mainly due to business scale expansion and the optimization of copyright costs. Last year, the company’s sales expense ratio was 7.1%, up 0.9ppt yoy, while management expense ratio was 1.9%, down 1.9ppt yoy; research fee ratio was 11.2%, down 1.2ppt yoy. We believe the copyright cost structure of the online audio industry will be more moderate in the future. We believe the company’s efforts to raise business scale and optimize copyright cost will likely lead to better profit margins.
投资建议/Investment Ideas
盈利预测与投资建议：基于在线音频行业的渗透和付费会员的持续拓展，云音乐有望实现营收进一步增长，我们预计2023-2025年公司整体营收105/122/141亿元，同比增长17%/16%/15%。预计云音乐2023-2025年净利润分别为-0.54/4.8/8.4亿元，同比增长158%/808%/75%。我们给予云音乐2023年2.5x PS，目标价为142 HKD，首次覆盖，给予“买入”评级
Valuation and risks
We expect Cloud Music will sustain its revenue uptrend as it continues to penetrate the online audio industry and expand paying membership numbers. We forecast revenue will reach RMB10.5bn/12.2bn/14.1bn in 2023/24/25E, up 17/16/15% yoy; and net profit will arrive at RMB-54m/+481m/+842m, rising 158%/808%/75% yoy. We assign a 2.5x PS in 2023E; with our target price at HKD142, we initiate coverage with a BUY rating.
风险提示：1. 宏观经济的不确定性；2. 相关政策收紧；3. 行业竞争加剧
Risks include: macroeconomic uncertainties; tightening policy; and intensifying competition.
Email: equity@tfisec.com
TFI research report website:
(pls scan the QR code)
本文件由天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供专业投资者作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、链接、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本文件及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本文件或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源于天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本文件，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本文件所引用之数据或资料可能得自第三方，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对第三方所提供数据或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本文件所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本文件中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本文件并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全了解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及后果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日后的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本文件的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本文件的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。