Zhejiang Dahua Technology
(002236 CH)
GPT-4带来AI机遇，看好中移动合作的成长性空间
GPT-4 expands AI opportunities; China Mobile cooperation adds growth potential
TP：RMB26.68 BUY (maintain) |
投资要点/Investment Thesis
投资要点/Investment Thesis
GPT-4发布，视觉AI发展迎来新机遇。OpenAI于3月14日发布GPT-4，与之前的模型相比，GPT-4支持多模态，可以实现图片和文本的输入，是迈向通用人工智能的重要方向。我们认为大华股份作为视频来源终端，或将获得广阔发展空间。1)AI处理流程分为感知、认知、决策、执行四大步骤。在AI相关产业中，视觉领域硬件出货量最大，在感知端可以为AI算法能力的发展提供优质数据。而作为视频监控领域龙头的大华，硬件市占率较高，获取视觉数据的规模较大，在AI信息处理流程中或将发挥重要作用。2)据艾瑞咨询与中商情报网数据测算，2020年AI+安防规模仅占总安防市场的5.6%，但AI+安防的市场增速高于整体安防市场，我们认为伴随AI快速发展，AI参与的智能化方案有望在新领域渗透、在传统领域替代非智能化方案。3)大华已成功研发半自动机器学习技术SAML，在同等算法效果前提下可以节省50%的人力，实现AI开发AI。我们认为伴随着AI研发成本的降低、GPT-4带动AI相关技术的进步，市场产生多层次、多领域产品化诉求的可能性会提高。
GPT-4 opens inroads to AI-driven visual market development possibilities
OpenAI’s release of GPT-4 on 14 March trumps its predecessor with multimodal support that adds the input of pictures to text. We believe this moves closer to artificial general intelligence (AGI) and opens broad development potential for Dahua Technology’s video source terminal business:
•AI processing covers four steps: perception, cognition, decision-making and execution. Within AI industries, visual hardware account for the largest shipments; the perception step adds high-quality data to develop AI algorithm capabilities. As a video surveillance market leader, Dahua holds a large hardware market share and has scaled up via visual data acquisition, which raises its positioning in AI information processing.
•Data from iResearch and China Business Intelligence Network show that the AI-driven security market accounted for only 5.6% of the total security market in 2020, but yet the segment’s growth rate is faster than the security market. Given the rapid AI ramp-up, we believe that AI-driven smart solutions will penetrate new markets by replacing non-smart solutions in traditional fields.
•Dahua developed semi-automatic machine learning (SAML) technology, which could save manpower cost by 50% (premised on the same algorithm effect) to realize AI-developed AI. With AI reducing R&D cost and GPT-4 driving the advancement of AI technologies, multi-tier and multi-market requirements for productization will likely increase in the market.
软硬件全面开放，AI浪潮下公司卡点新生态位。在AI发展大背景下，大华积极推动客户的生态合作，利用AI快速渗透各行业：①硬件：公司提供统一的硬件开放平台 DHOP 等，合作伙伴可推出基于 DHOP的特色应用与服务，支撑数智化快速普及。②智能：公司提供巨灵开发平台，合作伙伴通过AI 训练工具可低成本、零门槛、自由地进行场景化开发及定制服务。③平台：基于物联数智平台底座能力，公司可将场景化能力封装为标准 API 接口向伙伴开放，完善数智物联创新体系。④数据：打造一站式的数据开发引擎能力，开放 IaaS 层和 PaaS 层组件能力，赋能伙伴快速上云。
Open software & hardware: Dahua rides AI wave to reposition in niche ecosystem
Tapping into the AI growth potential, Dahua stepped up ecosystem collaborations with customers to penetrate more markets:
•Hardware: the company unified third-party hardware under its Dahua Hardware Open Platform (DHOP) to enable partners to use special apps and services on its platform and support the growing adoption of digital intelligence.
•Intelligentization: Jinn, Dahua’s AI-driven open platform, allows partners to freely carry out scenario-based development and customized services using AI training tools at low cost and zero threshold.
•Platform: based on the capabilities of the IoT digital intelligence platform, Dahua packages scenario-based solutions under a standard API interface that partners can access to improve their smart digital and IoT innovation systems.
•Data: its one-stop data development engine capability has open IaaS and PaaS layer component capabilities, which lets partners quickly access cloud services.
与中移动合作创造战略协同价值，打开成长性空间。公司在22年4月获得证监会有效期1年的批复，拟以17.40元股价向中移动增发不超过2.9亿股，大华有望与中国移动在各项业务中展开合作。中移动作为我国最大运营商，政企资源丰富，DICT相关业务的营收在2022前三季度为685亿，同比增长40.00%。在合作中，大华具备产品、解决方案的专业优势，叠加中国移动的管道、渠道覆盖优势，截止2022年6月，双方已在交通、工业能源等政企领域确定了数个行业样板点项目，完成多个全国节点和省区视频业务平台的建设，并联合打造了数十个解决方案和 5G 示范项目。
China Mobile collaboration adds strategic synergy and expands growth potential
Dahua obtained one-year approval from China Securities Regulatory Commission in April 2022 to issue up to 290m shares to China Mobile at RMB17.40 per share; and Dahua would cooperate with China Mobile in various ways. As China’s largest telco, China Mobile has plenty of government and corporate resources and its data, information and communications technology business revenue amounted to RMB68.5bn over 22Q1-3, up 40.00% yoy. Dahua brings to the cooperation its products and solutions advantages in synergy with China Mobile’s edge in pipeline and channel coverage. Both parties confirmed a number of industry model projects as of June 2022, including in transportation and industrial energy. They have completed the construction of several national nodes and provincial video service platforms, and jointly created dozens of solutions and 5G demonstration projects.
投资建议/Investment Ideas
投资建议：受22年疫情影响，将22-24年原预期归母净利润由39.53/45.60/53.05亿元下调为18.69/35.23/45.68亿元，给予目标价26.68元，维持“买入”评级。
Valuation and risks
To reflect the pandemic drag in 2022, we lower our net profit forecast to RMB1.87bn/ 3.52bn/4.57bn for 2022/23/24E (from RMB3.95bn/4.56bn/5.31bn), with our target price at RMB26.68. We maintain our BUY rating.
风险提示：中国移动增发进展不及预期、研发项目进展不及预期、安防行业需求恢复不及预期、AI技术进展不及预期。
Risks include: worse-than-expected incremental progress related to the China Mobile issuance; worse-than-expected R&D project progress; a slower-than-expected demand recovery in the security industry; and worse-than-expected AI technology development.
Email: equity@tfisec.com
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