China Light Industry Manufacturing
1-2月住宅销售基本持平，竣工同比+9.7%有望持续向好—家居板块数据跟踪报告2023年第二期
Home decor drivers: Jan-Feb residential unit sales post flat growth; 9.7% yoy completions uptrend will likely hold
投资要点/Investment Thesis
投资要点/Investment Thesis
2023年1-2月全国住宅商品房销售面积1.3亿平方米，同比下降0.6%，降幅较22全年同比收窄26.2pct。
February pick-up in housing, building materials and furnishing sales
Sales area of residential and commercial housing sales across China amounted to 130m sqm in Jan-Feb 2023, down 0.6% yoy, softening 26.2ppt against the full-year 2022 decline. Here are some takeaways:
全国30大中城市2023年1-2月商品房成交面积累计同比-13.3%，其中2月成交面积同比+32.0%。整体上看，1-2月全国30大中城市商品房成交面积2000.8亿平方米，同比减少13.3%，较1月降幅收窄26.7pct；单月看，2022年2月全国30大中城市商品房成交面积1130.3万平方米，同比上涨32.0%。
Commercial housing Feb pick-up: cumulative transaction area in 30 medium-sized to large cities fell 13.3% yoy to 200.08bn sqm in Jan-Feb 2023. February rose 32.0% yoy to 11.30m sqm; this led the Jan-Feb decline to soften 26.7ppt from January.
分城市等级看，2022年30大中城市中，一线城市成交面积472.7万方，累计同比下降15.0%；二线城市成交面积1092.5万方，累计同比下降17.2%；三线城市成交面积435.6万方，累计同比上涨1.0%。
Tier-1 and 2 cities downtrend: tracking the 30 medium-sized to large cities by city tier, cumulative sales transaction area in tier-1 cities fell 15.0% yoy to 4.73m sqm in Jan-Feb 2023; tier-2 cities fell 17.2% yoy to 10.93m sqm; while tier-3 cities nudged up 1.0% yoy to 4.36m sqm.
九大城市二手房2023年1-2月成交面积同比增长30.2%。2023年1-2月九大城市二手房成交面积1038.5万平方米，累计同比增加30.2%，增速由负转正。
Resale housing turnaround: the resale market in nine major cities rounded an inflection point in Jan-Feb 2023, rising 30.2% yoy to 10.39m sqm cumulative transaction area.
住宅新开工面积23年1-2月累计同比下降8.7%。2023年1-2月全国住宅新开工面积9891万平方米，同比下降8.7%。
Residential starts dipped: residential housing projects across China that began construction in Jan-Feb 2023 fell 8.7% yoy to 98.91m sqm.
商品房住宅竣工面积23年1-2月累计同比上升9.7%。2023年1-2月全国住宅竣工面积9782万平方米，同比上升9.7%。
Completions picked up: total residential and commercial housing projects that completed construction rose 9.7% yoy to 97.82m sqm in Jan-Feb 2023.
2023年1-2月全国家具零售额累计同比增长5.2%。2023年1-2月全国家具零售额235亿元，累计同比增长5.2%。2023年1-2月全国建材家居卖场销售额1914.2亿元，同比+4.4%，其中2月销售额1130.3亿元，同比+34.5%。2023年2月全国建材家居景气指数为119.9，同比提升16.9点，环比提升24.3点。
Decor markets across China in Jan-Feb 2023:
•Retail furniture sales picked up 5.2% yoy to a cumulative RMB23.5bn.
•Building materials and home furnishing store sales amounted to RMB191.42bn in the period, up 4.4% yoy; with February accounting for RMB113.03bn, up 34.5% yoy. China's Building Materials and Home Furnishing Prosperity Index was at 119.9 points in February, up 16.9 points yoy and up 24.3 points mom.
原材料方面，MDI、TDI、钢材价格环比略有回升。23年1-2月MDI均价18715.8元/吨，同比下降15.2%，其中2月均价19450.0元/吨，环比1月上升8.7%。23年1-2月TDI均价19715.8元/吨，同比上升6.4%，2月均价20080.0元/吨，环比1月上升4.0%。23年1-2月钢材综合价格指数均值为116.2，同比下降13.4%，2月单月均值为116.8，同比下降14.5%，环比上涨1.8%。
Raw materials: prices of MDI, TDI and steel ticked up in February
•MDI: the price averaged RMB18,715.8/t in Jan-Feb 2023, down 15.2% yoy; while the average price in February was RMB19,450.0/t, up 8.7% mom.
•TDI: the average price in Jan-Feb 2023 was RMB19,715.8/t, up 6.4% yoy, while the February average was RMB20,080.0/t, up 4.0% mom.
•Steel: the Steel Composite Price Index averaged 116.2 in Jan-Feb 2023, down 13.4% yoy; it averaged 116.8 in February, down 14.5% yoy and up 1.8% mom.
投资建议/Investment Ideas
投资建议：我们认为家装多为刚性需求，伴随疫情逐步控制，终端需求或将持续释放，订单有望迎来修复。22年9月底以来，央行、保监会、财政部地产相关政策频繁发布，涉及下调公积金贷款利率、换购住房享受所得税优惠、差别化调整住房信贷政策等，政策边际宽松或将利好新房及二手房交易量逐步回暖。家居板块有望迎来估值修复，坚定看好以内销为主的家居零售板块，推荐【欧派家居】、【顾家家居】、【喜临门】、【志邦家居】、【索菲亚】、【江山欧派】、【箭牌家居】。
Investment summary
We believe that home decoration demand is mostly rigid. As pandemic controls ease, the release of pent-up end-market demand could bring back orders. In the months since end-September 2022, the central bank, China Insurance Regulatory Commission and Ministry of Finance have released constant real estate policy updates, such as cutting provident fund loan interest rates, income tax incentives for trade-in home purchases and adjustments to the differential housing credit policy. With marginal policy easing, the new and resale housing markets could see transactions return. We expect to see a valuation recovery in the home furnishing sector. We are bullish about the home furnishing retail market in China.
Stock ideas: we recommend Oppein Home Group (603833 CH, BUY), Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) (603816 CH, BUY), Xilinmen Furniture (603008 CH, BUY), Zbom Home Collection (603801 CH, BUY), Suofeiya Home Collection (002572 CH, BUY), Jiangshan Oupai Door Industry (603208 CH, BUY) and Arrow Home Group (001322 CH, BUY; initiation of coverage).
风险提示：装修需求低迷；交房不及预期；原材料价格上涨；汇率波动；应收账款计提风险。
Risks include: sluggish home decoration demand; lower housing project deliveries than expected; rising raw material prices; FX fluctuations; and risks related to accounts receivable provisions.
Email: equity@tfisec.com
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