舆情速递：

“23旭辉MTN001”的发行进展受到市场热议，这笔计划发行的中票原定在春节前发行，但此后不断推迟，推迟的原因众说纷纭。主流消息称推迟原因系央行征信系统出现旭辉的银行贷款逾期记录，导致交易商协会和承销银行工商银行启动重新审批流程。而最新消息称工行审批未通过。目前市场的关注点已由“何时发行”向“能否发行”转变。

YY评级对这笔中票的舆情时间轴梳理如下：

-2023年1月10日，市场传出旭辉拟于1月18日发行15亿中票“23旭辉MTN001”，3年期，2.8%-4.3%，由中债信用增进提供全额无条件不可撤销连带责任担保。由国泰君安证券股份有限公司牵头，中国工商银行股份有限公司联主。

-2023年1月18日，旭辉称决定将2023年首期中票簿记时间安排在农历新年后，“以便有更充足时间完成发行工作，力争实现更好发行成本”。同时公司宣布“已获得中债增15亿增进保函……近期也与包括工行在内多家国有大行完成授信签约，也将参与并助力完成本次中票发行工作。

但市场也有声音猜测，推迟发行或因ZS需要更多谈判时间。

-2023年2月8日，传出旭辉几个最新情况：

（1）企业自身比较纠结，去年发了中票后外债躺平打了中债的脸，现在如果要新发中票后续就不能展期，但企业境内债到期压力还是很大的；

（2）国君正在修改募集，原先募资用途只用于保交楼，现在还加入了偿还有息债务和利息；

（3）企业的抵押物不是很充足。

-2023年2月9日，旭辉推迟发行的原因被曝出，主因央行征信系统出现旭辉的一笔银行贷款逾期记录（据了解目前已结清并从征信消除记录），导致其按照交易商协会要求需要履行二次上会审议流程，同时承销分行也需要推动行内重新履行信用风险审查审批流程。

但市场上也流传着其他说法：

消息1：“旭辉境外不还工行利息，被工行卡住5亿发不出担保债。目前工行利息通过集团配股那笔钱还了，境外应该不欠利息。工行现在也在走流程。中行之前有因为合作项目方个人征信问题现在在走二遍流程。公司现在还在争取农行参与进来，发行预估2月底完成，但目前也是初步估算时间，具体也不太确定。”

消息2：还有些别的说法，比如，因为高层批评了“舍外保内”的做法，所以主承要他先安抚好境外；再比如，和中债增关于抵质押的反担保措施还没最后谈好。

-2023年2月23日，市场曝出消息称，之前传工行审批完成是不实消息，工行没搞掂，被否了，可能要换主承。

价格观察：

从市场成交来看，由于发行的不确定性，旭辉境内债“21旭辉01”已由60元档跌至40元档。

而境外债方面，由于旭辉于2022年11月便官宣境外债违约，此后在推动境外债重组（消息人士透露旭辉控股集团计划最早于2月底推出境外债的初步重组方案，预计3月份开始与境外债权人就重组方案进行谈判），目前旭辉控股的境外债报价均在27美元左右，永续债报价在16美元左右。

YY Asia点评：

根据我们对旭辉的过往深度研究及跟踪，我们认为有以下几点担忧：

1、住宅销售端疲弱，资金回流大幅减少。中指数据显示，2022年旭辉控股实现权益销售额730亿元，同比下滑50%；2023年1月单月仅实现权益销售额30亿元，同比下滑40%。

2、投资性物业虽然位于一二线城市，但是截至22年6月末，已抵押逾8成，商业抵押空间难打开。

3、与出险房企的合作项目可能会加剧现金流的不确定性，增加资本支出敞口。通过梳理截至22年6月末旭辉的持有待开发的土储，可以发现合作方中涉及12家已展期或违约的房企，共波及27个项目。

4、截至22年6月末，旭辉控股有息债务规模为1,532.08亿元，其中短期有息债务151.83亿元。相较于表内债务压力，表外债务的潜在规模更让市场担忧。

5、到期压力方面，除去正在推进债务重组的境外债，目前旭辉境内债余额约128.93亿元，ABS24.55亿元，其中全部的ABS和47.45亿元境内债将于2023年内行权或到期。

Real Estate Express：CIFI’s Struggle

The progress of the issuance of "23旭辉MTN001", an onshore bond of CIFI, has attracted much attention. The planned medium-term note was originally scheduled to be issued before the Chinese New Year, but has been postponed since then. Mainstream news said that the reason for the delay was that there existed an overdue record of a bank loan in the PBOC's credit system, which led to the re-approval process within NAFMII and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd.(ICBC), the joint lead underwriter. However, it is said that CIFI failed in receiving ICBC's approval. The investors’ concerns have changed from "when to issue" to "whether to issue".

Timeline of this medium-term note is as follows, traced by YY Asia.

-On Jan. 10, 2023, some investors were told by the led underwriter that CIFI planned to issue "23旭辉MTN001", a medium-term note up to CNY 1.5bn via state-guaranteed bonds on Jan. 18. The proposed bond issue had a 3-year tenor, coupon range of 2.8%-4.3%, and carries an irrevocable and unconditional guarantee from state-owned China Bond Insurance Corporation Limited(CBICL). The issuance was led by Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. and co-led by ICBC.

-On Jan. 18, 2023, CIFI told investors that it has decided to schedule the bookkeeping of the medium-term note after the Lunar New Year, "in order to have more sufficient time to complete the issuance and strive to achieve better issuance costs" quoted CIFI. CIFI also announced that "it has obtained a 1.5 bn guarantee from CBICL and. recently completed credit contracts with a number of large state-owned banks, including ICBC, who would participate in the issue of the medium-term note.

However, there were also voices in the market speculating that the issuance was delayed for the reason that the bond pricing required more time to negotiate.

-On Feb. 8, 2023, several news of CIFI were spread among the investors.

(1) CIFI itself was torn, since it defaulted on an offshore bond last year right after it issued a medium-term note via state-guaranteed bonds, which had disappointed CBICL. And now CIFI must committed no more defaults if it wants to issue new medium-term notes, yet CIFI was under great pressure from maturity of the outstanding bonds.

(2) The fund raising from the note would not only be used to ensure timely deliveries of presold homes, but also to repay interest-bearing debts and interests, according to the latest OC revised by Guotai Junan.

(3) CIFI's collateral was not very sufficient.

-On Feb. 9, 2023, according to sources familiar of the matter, the note’s delayed issuance was due to the presence of an overdue record of a bank loan of CIFI in the PBOC's credit system(which was said to be cleared and thus the record was removed in the system by then), resulting in the re-approval process within NAFMII and ICBC, in accordance with the requirements of the NAFMII, as well as the management rules of the underwriting business, respectively.

However, other claims were also spread among the investors.

Source 1: "The issuance of the note was stuck in ICBC because CIFI didn’t repay ICBC’s interest offshore. So far CIFI has repaid ICBC’s interest through CIFI Group's shares placement, so ICBC is going through the process now. The Bank of China(BOC) are going through the process for the second time, because of some personal credit issues of a cooperative project. CIFI is now also in talks with the Agricultural Bank. The issuance of the note is expected to be completed by the end of February. Yet it is just an estimation."

Source 2: There are some other claims, such as, the led underwriter suggested CIFI to appease onshore investors, as the regulator had criticized CIFI for the practice of "repaying onshore bonds while defaulting offshore bonds". Another claim is that the counter-guarantee has not been finalized with CBICL.

-On Feb. 23, 2023, it was said that the previous rumor about obtaining ICBC’s approval turned out to be untrue. ICBC has rejected the application. It was also said that CIFI may have to change the joint underwriter.

Price Review:

CIFI’s onshore bonds have plunged due to the uncertainty of the note’s issuance. For example, price of "21旭辉01" has dropped from around RMB 60 to RMB 40.

As for CIFI’s offshore bonds, CIFI has been restructuring its offshore bonds, since it officially announced the default of its offshore bond in Nov. 2022. According to the updated news, CIFI Group plans to launch a preliminary restructuring plan for its offshore bond by the end of February, and to start negotiations with offshore bond holders on the restructuring plan in March. By the end of last Friday, CIFI’ offshore bonds were quoted at around $27, while its perpetual bond is quoted at around $16.

YY Asia’s Insight:

Based on our past in-depth research and tracking of CIFI, we have several concerns about CIFI.

Firstly, decrease in property sales may lead to significant shortfall in cash inflows. According to CREIS data, CIFI Holdings achieved sales attributed to the company of RMB 73bn in 2022, -50% year-on-year; what is worst, it achieved sales attributed to the company of only RMB 3bn in Jan. 2023, -40% year-on-year.

Secondly, more than 80% of CIFI’s investment properties, although located in first and second-tier cities, has been mortgaged as of 1H2022, thus leading to limited financing through collateral loan.

Thirdly, the exposure from cooperative projects with those developers who are struggling in liquidity crisis may exacerbate the uncertainty of cash inflows and capital expenditure. By a deep review on CIFI’s land reserves as of 1H2022, we found that the held-for-development projects involve at least 12 developers (as project’s partners) that have extended or defaulted on their bonds.

Fourthly, As of 1H2022, CIFI Group reported consolidated total debt of CNY 153.208bn, and consolidated short-term debt of CNY 15.183bn. We think the undisclosed scale of off-balance-sheet debt is more worrisome and alarming to the investors, besides of the above on-balance-sheet debt.

Fifthly, in terms of pressure from bonds maturity, excluding the offshore bonds that are under restructure, as of the report date, CIFI has outstanding onshore bonds of RMB 12.893bn and ABS of RMB 2.455bn. All the ABS and onshore bonds totaling RMB 4.745bn will put or mature within 2023. 

Chart 2 Due schedule of CIFI’s onshore bonds and ABS in 2023