目前，半导体和芯片制造设备行业的出口亮点陡然变暗，但原因并不在于中国。拜登正在以可能导致美国对海外销售大幅削减的方式重塑美国的出口管制制度。新制度可能短期内会保护了美国的公司，也力求减轻国家安全风险，但这无疑会让美国公司付出巨大经济代价，损害美国科技企业。美国在手机操作系统和芯片上对华为的全面限制是否能抑制住华为在科技方面发展，这个话题相信是全球华为粉丝及科技爱好所关心的。在美国论坛Quroa上就有网友抛出这样一个话题：美国切断对中国公司华为的技术销售对美国来说可能适得其反吗？让我们来看看各国民间网友是如何看待此事的吧

论坛话题：美国切断对中国公司华为的技术销售对美国来说可能适得其反吗？

加拿大网友的观点

Yes, and the scariest part of this stuff is that it basically illustrates that tech policy in the US is run by people that are clueless about tech and who believe their own propaganda.

是的，最可怕的是，它基本上说明了美国的科技政策是由那些对科技一无所知、相信自己宣传的人制定的。

You have people that seem to seriously believe that Chinese scientists and engineers are incapable of building anything original, and so if you block US exports of technology, then China will crumble.

有些人似乎真的相信中国科学家和工程师没有能力制造任何原创的东西，所以如果你阻止美国的技术出口，那么中国将崩溃。

In fact, the big reason that China buys stuff from the West rather than build it internally is that it’s faster and cheaper to just write checks to get tech than to build it yourself. But by putting a situation in which China is *forced* to build stuff, then you create a situation were China will have local alternatives to Western products, rather than just using Western products.

事实上，中国从西方购买东西而不是自己建造的主要原因是，直接开支票获得技术比自己建造更快更便宜。但是，如果中国被“强迫”建造东西，那么你就创造了这样一种局面:中国将有西方产品的本地替代品，而不仅仅是使用西方产品。

The reason this is particularly stupid is that this has already happened. In the early days of the internet, someone thought it would be a good idea for Western companies to refuse to comply with local censorship laws, and to “boycott” China. The result of this is that China is the only part of the world where the internet industry is not dominated by US based companies but rather by local ones.

这种做法之所以特别愚蠢，是因为这种情况已经发生了。在互联网的早期，有人认为西方公司拒绝遵守当地的审查法律并“抵制”中国是个好主意。其结果是，中国是世界上唯一一个互联网行业不是由美国公司主导，而是由本土公司主导的地区。

As long as China can buy US tech, then Chinese companies have no reason to create products and services that directly compete with US companies, but once you cut that off, you force Chinese companies to do that, and you’ll end up with stuff that directly challenges US offerings in the future.

只要中国可以购买美国的技术，那么中国公司就没有理由创造出直接与美国公司竞争的产品和服务，但一旦你切断了这一点，你就迫使中国公司这样做，你最终会在未来直接挑战美国的产品。

The amount of stupidity here is staggering.

这里的愚蠢程度是惊人的。

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法国软件工程师的观点

YES. Those actions have awaken the world that too much reliance on American technologies is fatal, since the US can cut off the supplies anytime it wants in the name of “national security”.

是的。这些行动让世界意识到，过度依赖美国技术是致命的，因为美国可以以“国家安全”的名义，随时切断对美技术的供应。

For example, if a Japanese company somehow becomes the leader in 6G technologies in the future, you can bet the US will do similar thing to that Japanese company as they are doing to Huawei now.

例如，如果一家日本公司在未来以某种方式成为6G技术的领导者，你可以打赌，美国将对这家日本公司采取类似于他们现在对华为所做的事情。

Don’t want to get banned by the US? Then don’t try to be ahead of the US in anything. This is the message the US is sending to the world.

不想被美国禁止吗?那就不要试图在任何方面领先美国。这是美国向世界传递的信息。

According to Chinese social media, the applications for positions in HiSilicon, the semi-conductor arm of Huawei, skyrocketed after the ban.

据中国社交媒体报道，禁令出台后，华为旗下半导体子公司海思半导体的职位申请大幅增加。

And all the Chinese mobile phone makers are now taking a second look at Chinese domestic IC chips, which they used to shun as those Chinese ICs are 20–30% lower in performance. There used to be a vicious cycle that stunts the growth of Chinese IC industry: bad performance -> no one uses them -> no money for R&D and no chance to test for bugs -> bad performance. So the best way to slow down the development of Chinese IC industry is actually for the US to sell as many IC chips to China as possible. This way, Chinese IC firms will be starved from the capital and talents needed to grow.

所有的中国手机制造商现在都在重新审视中国本土的IC芯片，他们过去一直回避中国本土的IC芯片，因为它们的性能比中国本土芯片低20-30%。过去有一个恶性循环阻碍了中国集成电路产业的发展:性能差——没有人使用它们——没有研发资金和测试bug的机会——性能差。所以，减缓中国IC产业发展的最好方法，实际上是美国向中国出售尽可能多的IC芯片。这样一来，中国的集成电路公司将缺乏发展所需的资本和人才。

With the ban on Huawei, this vicious cycle is broken. Going forward, Chinese IC industry will go through a virtuous cycle: more usage -> more money for R&D and more chance to test for bugs -> better performance -> more usage.

对华为的禁令打破了这种恶性循环。展望未来，中国IC产业将经历一个良性循环:更多的使用——更多的研发资金和更多的bug测试机会——更好的性能——更多的使用。

And Chinese government will have no reservation on showering Chinese IC companies with state support, which is exactly what Trump tries to stop. Now that Trump shows that the US is happy to use governmental actions to crush commercial competitons, Chinese government will have no qualms at all in supporting Chinese IC firms with subsidies and protectionist measures.

中国将毫无保留地给予中国IC企业大量的国家支持，这正是特朗普试图阻止的。既然特朗普显示出美国乐于使用政府行动来打击商业竞争，中国将毫不犹豫地用补贴和保护主义措施支持中国的集成电路公司。

Globally, 7 out of the top 10 mobile phone makers are Chinese. And just Chinese domestic market alone is 1.4 billion strong, which is big enough for Chinese mobile phone makers to adopt Chinese ICs. After Chinese ICs become better, they will then be rolled out to other developing markets.

在全球范围内，前10大手机制造商中有7家是中国的。仅中国国内市场就有14亿美元，足以让中国手机制造商采用中国芯片。在中国集成电路变得更好之后，它们将被推广到其他发展中市场。

Once the virtuous cycle starts to kick in, we will witness a meteoric rise of Chinese IC industry. It really doesn’t bode well for American IC industry.

一旦形成良性循环，我们将见证中国IC产业的迅速崛起。这对美国的集成电路产业来说真的不是一个好兆头。

In short, if you are looking for what MYOPIC policy is like, you can’t find a better example like Trump’s ban on Huawei and other Chinese tech companies.

简而言之，如果你想知道短视政策是什么样的，你找不到比特朗普禁止华为和其他中国科技公司更好的例子了。

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南非网友的观点

This is a indeed a very dumb move by the Americans, one that is going to have severe negative repercussions for the entire US tech industry in the long term. The chip makers and more specifically Google.

这确实是美国人的一个非常愚蠢的举动，从长远来看，这将对整个美国科技行业产生严重的负面影响。芯片制造商，更确切地说是谷歌。

Their actions against Huawei are setting off alarm bells in the entire global cell phone manufacturing industry. Most cell phone manufacturers are not US companies. The move to ban the sales of vital chips to Huawei has most likely made all cell phone manufacturers look very closely at their reliance on American chips and technology and therefore their vulnerabilities to the whims of an unpredictable character like Donald Trump. No doubt they are all looking at what steps they can take to reduce their reliance on American chips and their exposure to the whims of US presidents.

他们针对华为的行动给全球手机制造业敲响了警钟。大多数手机制造商都不是美国公司。禁止向华为销售关键芯片的举措，很可能让所有手机制造商都非常仔细地审视自己对美国芯片和技术的依赖，以及它们在唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)这样不可预测的人物突发奇想时的弱点。毫无疑问，他们都在考虑采取什么措施，以减少对美国芯片的依赖，减少对美国总统心血来潮的影响。

Huawei is going to suffer enormous damage in the immediate and medium term, no doubt. However the company that is ultimately going to pay the biggest price is Google and it’s Android operating system. In fact I would go as far to say that this is the beginning of the end for Android and ultimately Google.

毫无疑问，华为将在近期和中期遭受巨大损失。然而，最终付出最大代价的公司是谷歌和它的Android操作系统。事实上，我想说的是，这是Android和谷歌终结的开始。

华为鸿蒙系统

You can be rest assured that right now every cell phone manufacturing companies’ top brass are having emergency meetings to discuss this earth shattering move by Google, its impact on Huawei, the cell phone industry and the impact such a move would have on their own company if the US should do the same to them.

你可以放心，现在每个手机制造公司的高层都在召开紧急会议，讨论谷歌的这一惊天动地的举动，它对华为、手机行业的影响，以及如果美国对他们采取同样的行动，这一举动将对他们自己的公司产生的影响。

I bet they are all feeling highly uncomfortable that by the stroke of a pen, someone as impulsive, thin skinned and unpredictable as Trump can literally destroy their multi-billion dollar companies overnight. Samsung, LG, Sony and all other major cell phone manufacturing companies are most likely going to instruct their R&D departments to start working immediately on developing their own operating systems.

我敢打赌，他们都感到非常不舒服，因为特朗普这样冲动、脸皮薄、不可预测的人，一笔笔就能在一夜之间摧毁他们价值数十亿美元的公司。三星、LG、索尼和所有其他主要的手机制造公司很可能会指示他们的研发部门立即开始开发自己的操作系统。

You can be rest assured that future devices from Samsung, LG, Sony and Huawei etc will be coming out with their own operating systems. Bear in mind that virtually all cell phone companies are not American companies. Android is not going to survive this - it is going to be gone within a decade.

你可以放心，三星、LG、索尼和华为等未来的设备将会推出自己的操作系统。请记住，实际上所有的手机公司都不是美国公司。Android不会在这个时代幸存下来——它将在十年内消失。

Less or no Android phones means less revenue from Google Play store, less Gmail users etc. Google’s revenue and shares are going to tank.

更少或更少的Android手机意味着谷歌Play store的收益更少，Gmail用户也更少。谷歌的营收和股价都将暴跌。

The same for their reliance on American chips. They are going to start making a concerted effort to wean themselves off American chips and seek alternatives. Most likely the alternatives is going to come from China, who is now going to accelerate the development and manufacture of their own such chips.

他们对美国芯片的依赖也是如此。他们将开始共同努力，摆脱对美国芯片的依赖，寻找替代品。最有可能的替代选择将来自中国，中国现在正在加快开发和制造自己的此类芯片。

I think ultimately it is going to affect more than just the cell phone and chip industry. The Trump administration’s over eagerness to use such tactics willy nilly is making companies, in all industries across the globe, look at their exposure to, and any reliance they may have on, any American equipment and technology.

我认为最终影响的将不仅仅是手机和芯片行业。特朗普政府过于急切地不顾一切地使用这种策略，正在让全球所有行业的公司审视它们对美国设备和技术的敞口，以及它们可能对美国设备和技术的依赖。

Steps are going to be taken to reduce that reliance and exposure. Because of these latest moves, overexposure to and reliance on American equipment and technology is henceforth going to be viewed as a major risk. Steps are going to be taken to mitigate this risk, which ultimately is going to result in less and less business for American companies.

我们将采取措施减少这种依赖和风险敞口。由于这些最新举措，过度暴露和依赖美国设备和技术将被视为一个重大风险。我们将采取措施来降低这种风险，这最终将导致美国公司的业务越来越少。

This is a massive own goal for American business.

这对美国企业来说是一个巨大的乌龙。

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中国网友的观点

At least many people in China, especially those pro free market or pro US ones, are getting disappointed and disillusioned by recent series of acts against Huawei.

至少在中国，很多人，尤其是那些支持自由市场和美国的人，对最近一系列针对华为的行为感到失望和幻灭。

They were not in this mood when similar things happened to ZTE not far ago.

不久前，当类似的事情发生在中兴通讯身上时，他们没有这种心情。

Why? Because ZTE is a state company and Huawei is a private company.

为什么?因为中兴是一家国有公司，华为是一家私营公司。

Huawei is everything entrepreneurship stands for in China: hard working, innovation, competitive rewards, ruthless competition, etc.

华为就是中国企业家精神所代表的一切:努力工作、创新、有竞争力的回报、无情的竞争等等。

Compared to other telecom tech companies in China ten more years ago, Huawei didn’t get more special favor from Chinese govt, as many other companies are state owned, including ZTE, Julong, Datang. Even Alcatel’ Chinese subsidiary is half owned by Chinese govt. Whilst Huawei was and has kept been a private company.

与十多年前的中国其他电信科技公司相比，华为并没有得到中国政府更多的特殊优待，因为许多其他公司都是国有的，包括中兴、巨龙、大唐。就连阿尔卡特的中国子公司也有一半是由中国政府所有的，而华为过去和现在都是一家私营公司。

Huawei faced a lot of uncertainty back then, to the extent they almost sold the company to Motorola in 2003. The deal was not closed only because Motorola’s new CEO had no interest in buying an unknown Chinese tech company.

当时华为面临着很多不确定性，以至于他们在2003年差点把公司卖给摩托罗拉。这笔交易之所以能达成，不仅仅是因为摩托罗拉的新CEO无意收购一家不知名的中国科技公司。

Some may say, yeah, private company huh? Who knows Chinese govt isn’t at work behind the curtain. My argument is, if you accept a state owned (openly or covertly) company could ascend to one of very top Tech and consumer electronics companies in the world, then you don’t have enough faith in free market and capitalism.

有些人可能会说，是的，私人公司?谁知道中国政府不是幕后主使。我的观点是，如果你接受一个国有(公开或秘密)公司可以成为世界上最顶尖的科技和消费电子公司之一，那么你对自由市场和资本主义没有足够的信心。

So here’s how people like me view the attack on Huawei:

以下是我这样的人对华为遭受攻击的看法:

You start by saying China is using state power to interfere the market, state owned companies are having too much edge over foreign and private ones, thus making competition unfair and trade unbalanced. Alright, at least we all agree to push China towards the direction of more structural reform and opening up, so we can leave that door open.

你们一开始说中国正在利用国家权力干预市场，国有企业比外国和私营企业有太多优势，从而导致竞争不公平和贸易不平衡。好吧，至少我们都同意推动中国走向更多结构性改革和开放的方向，所以我们可以敞开大门。

You ban the use of Huawei telecom gears in US, that’s understandable too, because though there’s no hard evidence ever presented, you can always say as long as capability is there so intention doesn’t matter——after all intention can change at times or on whims, as displayed by the great incumbent POTUS himself.

你们在美国禁止使用华为电信设备，这也是可以理解的，因为虽然没有确凿的证据，但你们总可以说，只要有能力，所以意图并不重要——毕竟意图有时会改变，就像伟大的现任总统自己所展示的那样。

By this you are showing you are a caring big brother, you know better what other people should have; and because you are so omniscient and omnipotent, you can dictate billions of people to do as you say, for their own sake of course. If the persuasion doesn’t work well, you can force them to, one way or another.

这表明你们是一个有爱心的大哥哥，你更知道别人应该拥有什么;因为你是如此的无所不知和无所不能，你可以命令数十亿人按照你说的去做，当然是为了他们自己。如果说服不起作用，你可以强迫他们这样或那样。

Wait, is that the same U.S. of A. we are talking about? Because that sounds a lot like the enemy US as we knew would paint on.

等等，这就是我们说的美国吗?因为这听起来很像我们所知道的敌人美国。

Where goes the Beacon of Liberty? Where goes the Land of the Free?

自由灯塔在哪里?自由之国在哪里?