OVER THE past decade owning a house has meant easy money. Prices rose reliably for years and then went bizarrely ballistic in the pandemic. Yet today if your wealth is tied up in bricks and mortar it is time to get nervous. House prices are now falling in nine rich economies. The drops in America are small so far, but in the wildest markets they are already dramatic. In condo-crazed Canada homes cost 9% less than they did in February. As inflation and recession stalk the world a deepening correction is likely—even estate agents are gloomy. Although this will not detonate global banks as in 2007-09, it will intensify the downturn, leave a cohort of people with wrecked finances and start a political storm. 

过去十年里，持有房产就意味着轻松赚钱。多年来房价一直稳步上涨，在全球疫情期间还怪异地飘升了。然而时至今日，如果你的财富被套在房产上，那你就该心里不踏实了。九个发达经济体的房价都在跌。迄今为止美国的跌幅还不大，但在最疯狂的市场上房价已经跌得触目惊心。在热衷共管公寓的加拿大，房价较2月时下跌了9％。随着通货膨胀和衰退的风险在全球蔓延，很可能会发生一场深度调整--即使地产中介也感到悲观。尽管这次不会像2007到2009年那样让全球银行爆雷，但却会加剧衰退，让部分人陷入财务困境，并引发一场政治风暴。

The cause of the crunch is soaring interest rates: in America prospective buyers have been watching, horrified, as the 30-year mortgage rate has hit 6.92%, over twice the level of a year ago and the highest since April 2002. The pandemic mini-bubble was fuelled by rate cuts, stimulus cash and a hunt for more suburban space. Now most of that is going into reverse. Take, for example, someone who a year ago could afford to put $1,800 a month towards a 30-year mortgage. Back then they could have borrowed $420,000. Today the payment is enough for a loan of $280,000: 33% less. From Stockholm to Sydney the buying power of borrowers is collapsing. That makes it harder for new buyers to afford homes, depressing demand, and can squeeze the finances of existing owners who, if they are unlucky, may be forced to sell. 

危机的原因是利率飘升:在美国，有意购房者目瞪口呆地看着30年期按揭利率攀升至6.92％，比一年前高出一倍多，是2002年4月以来的最高点。降息、经济刺激资金和追捧郊区生活空间，这些因素驱动了疫情期间的小型泡沫，而现在它们几乎都在逆转。举例来说，假设一年前某人可以负担月供1800美元、30年期的按揭贷款，当时他可以借到42万美元。如今，这笔月供只能贷到28万美元，少了33％。从斯德哥尔摩到悉尼，借款人的购买力正在崩溃。这使得新买家更难买得起房子，抑制了需求，并可能令有房者的财务承压，如果运气不好，他们可能还得被迫卖掉房子。